Though there will be some added emotion when the Yankees visit Derek Jeter’s Marlins on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, the pinstripes will still be heavy favorites in both games. Not only are the Yankees the much better team, they’re also dominating weaker sides since the All-Star break.
Last Wednesday we noted an interesting Yankees dynamic which has intensified since. Only four of 27 games since the break have come against a playoff-bound opponent (a lost weekend in Boston). Six games have come against “tweener” Tampa Bay, which has hovered around the .500 mark for a long time. The other 19 games have come against non-contenders:
Bronx Bombers breakdown
- 0-4 vs. Boston
- 2-4 vs. Tampa Bay
- 14-5 vs. non-contenders
That’s 2-8 versus teams that know what they’re doing, 14-5 against relative weaklings. Great news, because the schedule the next two weeks is about as soft as it gets. This next stretch includes two games at Miami, four at Baltimore, three at home versus the White Sox and four in The Bronx versus the Tigers.
Should bettors be backing the Yankees every night out? Let’s throw market performance into our “breakdown” chart:
Yankees betting breakdown
- 0-4 vs. Boston (-4.40 units)
- 2-4 vs. Tampa Bay (-5.40 units)
- 14-5 vs. non-contenders (+1.2 units)
Your mileage may vary depending on when you bet money lines in flux. Those are a good representation of profit/loss using closing lines. That 14-5 record has yielded about one unit of profit because the Yankees are always so expensive to bet. Don’t forget about the loss at -400 to Kansas City!
Recent results suggest a refined strategy might be fruitful. We know that the Yankees’ form isn’t measuring up lately with elite teams like the Red Sox. But, since the All-Star break, in the game immediately following a loss to anyone but Boston, the Yankees are 7-2, with a profit of 4.2 units.
Asking the Yankees to win for you every day, even facing a weak schedule, is likely to be dicey at the very high prices you’ll be seeing. But, asking them to “bounce back” immediately following a loss might be worth considering. Don’t ask them to steamroll these next two weeks unless you hear the engine roaring. Jump on them the game after an embarrassing result.
