VSIN’s MMA expert dives into the main event for the final UFC card of 2021, Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Derrick Lewis (+115) vs. Chris Daukaus (-140), heavyweight (265 pounds) championship

Lewis, the No. 3-ranked heavyweight, had won four in a row before he entered the cage against Ciryl Gane in August. He owns a victory over current champion Francis Ngannou in one of the strangest MMA bouts of all time as well as a recent win over Curtis Blaydes.

A blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Lewis possesses tremendous natural power and delivers incredible country strength with every strike and kick. He’s explosive for six to eight minutes in any bout before his game becomes a simple attempt to club his opponent unconscious with a telegraphed, predictable power shot delivered with glacier-like speed.

Lewis is aware that, with his size, he must ration output in order to remain effective for a couple of rounds then wing it after that because he’s not a mixed martial artist. He’s a one-dimensional brawler who has been able to find the chin of most of his lower-caliber opponents. When he steps up to face elite fighters in the division, however, his lack of real MMA weaponry leaves him exposed.

Lewis had claimed to be training more effectively for his last several fights, which did not show against Gane. In fact, that claim may be difficult to back up given that he’s 36 years old with a 6-foot-3, 265-pound physique and considering the tremendous amount of effort he puts into every “trip hammer hook” he throws.

Daukaus, 32, is a relatively new face in a heavyweight division short on talent. He’s ranked seventh after just four UFC bouts, looking impressive against pedestrian competition.

The former Philadelphia policeman holds a black belt in BJJ and is somewhat undersized at 240 pounds. But he employs great movement and athleticism, has a solid grappling game, has the cardio to wrestle effectively and has finished all of his UFC opponents so far.

Daukaus steps up in competition for this fight, but he’s catching a fighter on the downside of his career and one who is able to remain effective for only a short time.

Daukaus will need to use his superior footwork to remain evasive while choosing opportune times to attack. He needs to encourage Lewis to expend his precious energy early in the bout. Provided he can evade Lewis’ telegraphed and evolutionarily slow punches early, Daukaus has the chance to prove he is a legitimate top-six threat at heavyweight.

Total in this fight: 1.5 rounds Over (-115). I am surprised at the 1.5-rounds total and see this going under only if Daukaus uses absolutely no fight IQ and rushes Lewis. Nevertheless, fight IQ is one of Daukaus’ strengths.

The pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-115).