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Houston and Villanova will both look to punch Final Four tickets on Saturday when they meet in the Elite Eight.

If this is a close game late, there’s one major area where Villanova has the advantage. The Wildcats shoot free throws better than any team in NCAA history, and the Cougars rank just 327th in free throw percentage. That’s a scary thought for the Cougars in a game that’s lined at just two, meaning it’s expected to be close in the final four minutes.

With that being said, 6-foot-1 Houston point guard Jamal Shead might be two inches shorter than Villanova point guard Collin Gillespie, but I’m expecting Shead’s athleticism and defensive prowess to really cause issues for Gillespie. He’s one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Similar to how Baylor and St. John’s rattled Gillespie by pressing the ball all game long, Houston’s team defense can frustrate the Wildcats.

Houston’s offense isn’t always pretty and doesn’t have a ton of shot makers, but Villanova’s mediocre defensive rebounding numbers means that Houston will win by its sheer volume of shots. If the first or second chance doesn’t convert, Houston will get more shots up in this game and even if they’re less efficient, the Cougars will book their place in the Final Four for the second consecutive year.

The market opened this at Houston -1.5 when it was immediately bet up to -2/-2.5. It has since settled at the Cougars -2, as the market is finally showing the proper level of respect to Kelvin Sampson’s bunch. In a game of two elite coaches and two elite teams, the Houston key matchup advantages are significant enough for me to lay two points. I wouldn’t lay more than that, given that I expect this game to be close.

The play: Houston -2 or better