Bettors trying to make money in college sports are often confronted with favorites that flummox stat formulas or power ratings. Many teams look fantastic when facing soft opponents who can’t compete, but turn ordinary when challenged.
The 2019 Georgia Bulldogs have been a great example heading into Saturday’s annual “cocktail party” against archrival Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS). Led by a potent running attack, the Bulldogs will bulldoze opponents who are undersized, soft up-front or otherwise inept at tackling.
Georgia has faced four opponents thus far who are outside the top 50 in computer ratings compiled by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today. In game order, the Bulldogs are 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread vs. Vanderbilt (98), Murray State (196), Arkansas State (90) and Tennessee (56). They clobbered that quartet by a combined 191-37 on the scoreboard.
But, in three games against better opponents (Sagarin rankings in parentheses):
- Georgia at -15¹/₂ beat Notre Dame (14) only 23-17. You probably watched this marquee matchup on TV. The Bulldogs did get the win, but at no time did they look like a national power that should have been favored by two touchdowns over the Irish. It was a tight battle between evenly matched opponents. Georgia won total yardage only 341-321.
- Georgia at -20¹/₂ lost outright to South Carolina (43) 20-17 in overtime. The Bulldogs couldn’t even score the spread! They were forced to throw 52 passes because the Gamecocks were able to stuff the run. That led to three Georgia interceptions and four total turnovers. Laying a combined 36 points at home to Notre Dame and South Carolina, Georgia could win scoreboard only 40-37.
- Georgia at -23¹/₂ beat Kentucky (47) 21-0. Again, the Bulldogs couldn’t score the spread. Granting that weather hurt both offenses, Georgia once again couldn’t move the ball consistently or live up to market expectations, bringing the Bulldogs to 0-3 ATS vs. teams in Sagarin’s top 50.
Florida currently ranks 12th with Sagarin, representing Georgia’s toughest opponent to date. Late-week betting suggests the point spread will close near Georgia -6 or -6¹/₂. Is the market once again overrating Georgia’s ability to get scoreboard distance from competitive opponents it can’t bully?
Bettors will find it helpful to look at game logs rather than season-to-date stat averages when handicapping college football or basketball (season starts Tuesday!). Try to get a sense of how each team performs against different caliber opponents. Use only those results (and stat dynamics) to predict what’s most likely to happen against their next foe.
At the time, Georgia’s season-to-date math did a horrible job of predicting what would happen vs. Notre Dame or South Carolina. But if the Bulldogs were to face a late-season cupcake computer-rated around No. 100, data from those early-season routs would probably be predictive.
We’ll learn late Saturday afternoon if disappointing scoring totals vs. Notre Dame, South Carolina and Kentucky are foreshadowing a Florida cover in Jacksonville.
