The popularity of NHL betting has risen exponentially in recent years, thanks in large part to the meteoric rise of the Vegas Golden Knights and the growing overall interest in sports gambling as more and more states legalize betting. However, hockey remains a unique and tricky sport to bet on for several key reasons.
First, while hockey betting has increased in recent years, it still remains one of the lowest-bet major sports overall. Aside from your diehard hockey wiseguys, there just aren’t many casual bettors who are clamoring to get down on hockey. Football is king and always will be. Basketball is a close second. Baseball is way behind in third. And then there’s hockey.
To put this discrepancy in perspective, a big “Monday Night Football” game might receive more than 100,000 combined bets while a regular-season hockey game might be lucky to receive 5,000.
For this reason, there is almost no contrarian value to betting hockey. Why? Because there isn’t enough public to bet against. So right off the bat you are losing a key edge that can be found in other major sports. Placing yourself on the side of the house isn’t as important because NHL games are low-bet and the handle is much smaller. As a result, books don’t have nearly as much liability on a hockey game as they do on a football or basketball game.
However, we can still find value betting on hockey. You just have to be disciplined and pick your spots. Here are a few helpful tips:
- Hockey is a money-line sport. Instead of having to pick which team covers the spread, you just have to pick who wins the game (There is a spread in hockey called the puck line. It’s the favorite -1¹/₂ goals and the underdog +1¹/₂ goals. But it’s not nearly as popular of a bet type as the money line). You can also bet on totals. A common total in hockey is 5¹/₂ or six. With scoring on the rise in recent years you now see more 6¹/₂ totals than ever.
- Hockey is a “favorite” sport. Baseball is your only other predominantly money-line major sport aside from hockey. And the beauty of baseball is that if you focus on underdogs who feature plus-money payouts (think +120, +150 or +170) you only have to win roughly 45 percent of the time in order to turn a profit (in spread sports such as football and basketball, you have to win 52.38 percent of the time in order to break even, assuming standard -110 juice).
Unfortunately, hockey can’t be treated similarly to baseball because ’dogs don’t bark as loudly. According to Bet Labs Sports, baseball ’dogs have won 42.5 percent of their games since 2005. In hockey, ’dogs have only won only 41.2 percent of their games over the same time frame. It may not seem like a big deal but this 1.3 percent discrepancy makes a big difference when you extrapolate it over the course of a full season.
- Home-ice advantage isn’t as valuable in hockey. Since 2005, home teams have won 54.9 percent of the time in the NHL. That’s a little better than MLB (53.9 percent), but well behind the NBA (59.3 percent) and NFL (57 percent).
Why does hockey feature one of the worst home-team advantages? One reason might be the way the arenas are built. With high plexiglass surrounding the perimeter of the rink, the players are incubated from the crowd, unlike the other sports where nothing separates the players from the fans. This eliminates distractions, noise and makes it easier for players to focus on the game. This levels the playing field and decreases the advantage for the home team.
- Focus on road favorites, especially rested ones. If you combine favorites and road teams together, you find a simple edge for betting hockey. Road favorites have gone 2,586-1,935 (57.2 percent) since 2005, winning +14.19 units. You aren’t setting the world on fire with this system, but it’s the only major sport where blindly betting road favorites has been profitable on the money line.
Hockey is such a physically taxing sport, played night in and night out. As a result, extra rest is crucial for players. It re-energizes their tired legs and provides a huge advantage (plus coaching staffs have more time to break down film and game plan against their opponent).
The key is backing rested road favorites who have had either three or four days off since their last game. These teams have gone 655-417 (61.1 percent), winning +75.36 units. A $100 bettor taking each one would be up $7,536. This system jumps to 64 percent with +86.9 units if the rested road favorite also is playing a team that missed the playoff the previous year.
- Shop for the best line. Not all sportsbooks offer the same odds. You want to ensure you have access to multiple sportsbooks so you can find the best number.
