Sports books hate football games with point spreads that hop between the favorite laying 2¹/₂ and 3. As a result, many have been making tough decisions about Friday night’s annual “Snoopy Bowl” dress rehearsal featuring the Jets and the Giants.
The line opened near pick ’em, but the Jets were bet up fairly quickly to -2 and -2¹/₂. Action continued coming in on the Jets at -2¹/₂ . By midweek, many shops globally were charging additional vigorish to lay 2¹/₂ points (instead of the standard -110, Jets backers might be charged -115, or -120 for example). The Westgate in Las Vegas was the first to test the full 3 points. (Be sure you monitor the price at your favorite shops throughout the day Friday.)
Interestingly, that’s very close to the average margin in this game during the Todd Bowles era with the Jets.
Recent Snoopy Bowls
- 2015: Jets (+2) won 28-18
- 2016: Jets (+1) lost 21-20
- 2017: Jets (+4) lost 32-31
Average score: Jets by 2.67 points
Bowles is 2-0-1 against market prices in this game, but this is his first time as a favorite. Obviously, it’s the first Jets-Giants game for new G-Men coach Pat Shurmur.
Why does this fractional spread range cause such a headache for sports books? Imagine that everyone wanting to bet the Jets gets in at -2¹/₂ or less. No Giants interest yet because the team hasn’t impressed this August. But, once the full 3 is in play, Jets money stops … while Giants money finally hits the board. Giants fans can’t resist getting a field goal. Maybe some sharps see value on the dog at +3 because the Jets’ offense hasn’t established it can score at will this month.
Jets money is only at -2¹/₂ or lower. Giants money is only at +3 or higher.
If the Jets win by exactly 3, it’s disaster for a sports book. All the Jets bets win. All the Giants bets push and get refunded. Huge out-of-pocket loss for bookmakers.
In terms of pure betting strategy, Jets fans should try to get their money at less than the full 3 if they get a chance. Giants fans should wait to see if they can put that key number in their pocket. Good luck whichever side you support in Friday’s Snoopy showdown. All through the coming season, betting at the best available lines will help keep you out of the doghouse.
