There hasn’t been a more reliable NBA moneymaker for sports bettors over the past six weeks than the Nets. D’Angelo Russell and company take the floor again Friday at home against the Knicks (MSG, YES, 7:30 p.m.)
Even with Wednesday’s non-cover vs. Orlando (a 114-110 victory as a 5-point favorite), the Nets are now 18-5 straight up against money line prices, 16-6 (73 percent) against the spread since Dec. 7.
As we’ve discussed previously, the young and hungry Nets are ideally positioned to take advantage of a league that tends to coast through its middle months. Contenders are pacing themselves so they’re poised to peak when the playoffs begin in April. Bad teams have no motivation to play well now because awful win-loss records position them well for the draft lottery. Talented young tweeners like the Nets can ignite!
This current tear is reminiscent of one we saw last year at this time by the Heat. Same spot in the league hierarchy. Same story lines. Comparable success. From Dec. 6, 2017 to Jan. 29, 2018, the Heat went 18-8 straight up, 15-10-1 ATS. Betting markets weren’t caught quite as flat-footed because there was more lingering respect for the Heat at that time than there was for the Nets this season. Still, that was a 60 percent cover stretch for Miami in a league that’s usually priced fairly well.
Does that mean the Nets are due to cool off by the end of the month? That’s largely up to the man driving the race car, coach Kenny Atkinson. If he wants to keep his foot on the gas, this could last even longer. Though, coaches or teams can’t control when bad injury luck will happen. And, it’s harder to catch opponents flat-flooted over and over again through a few months unless they’re outright tanking (Orlando was in a revenge spot Wednesday after losing at home to Brooklyn last Friday).
Bettors should keep an eye on results and cover margins to see if the market is gradually honing in on the Nets’ true level of nightly play. Over the last 11 games, cover margins during an 8-3 ATS run look like this on a number line from worst to best (median in parentheses): -10.5, -7, -1, 4, 6, (7), 9, 9.5, 13, 15, 25.5.
Wednesday’s nail-biter was the sample’s only ATS sweat. The Nets bettered expectations by six points or more in seven of those 11 games.
What about the Knicks? We talked about their lack of motivation to get results earlier this week. After Wednesday’s 114-110 loss to the Rockets (61 for Harden in the Garden!), the Knicks have lost 15-of-16 straight up, and are 3-22 their last 25 (disaster on the money line).
The Knicks are 8-14 ATS their last 22.
For now, the Nets, who lost Spencer Dinwiddie for a reported 4-6 weeks with a finger injury, are a playoff-caliber team on pace to be a big first-round underdog against an Eastern power enjoying home-court advantage, while the Knicks are zooming in on the Zion Williamson sweepstakes. Betting markets are trying to catch up with one, catch down to the other.
