Handicapping Saturday’s much-anticipated Southeastern Conference showdown between No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS) is a daunting challenge.
Alabama has yet to be threatened by a very soft schedule. LSU has passed its litmus tests … but none has come against an opponent as great as ’Bama.
The fact No. 2 is laying almost a touchdown to No. 1 tells you there isn’t agreement between betting markets and pollsters. Openers went up late last weekend at Alabama -7 or -6¹/₂ on its home field. We’re likely to see a closing line of -6 or -6¹/₂ depending on reports about Tua Tagovailoa’s readiness in the hours before kickoff.
How will Alabama perform against a perceived peer? Is LSU really at the top of the national class, or are the Tigers and current Heisman Trophy favorite Joe Burrow about to be exposed as second tier?
Let’s quickly run through performances against each team’s toughest foes with an eye on stat categories respected by sharps.
- Alabama (-25¹/₂) won at South Carolina 47-23, winning yardage 571-459, yards-per-play by a more impressive 8.9 to 5.3 (SC ran 22 more plays), third-down conversions 50 percent to 44 percent, and turnovers 2-0. South Carolina was also 2 of 4 on fourth-down tries, resulting in two virtual turnovers. South Carolina turned out to be pretty good, so the victory margin and yards-per-play edge look better now than they did at the time. It’s worth noting, though, that Alabama didn’t exactly play shutdown defense.
- Alabama (-17) won at Texas A&M 47-28, winning yardage 448-389, yards-per-play 6.9 to 5.3, and third-down conversions 62 percent to 42 percent. Turnovers were knotted at one, but the Aggies had a fourth-down failure. The Crimson Tide were favored by 32 or more in every other game.
- LSU (-6 ¹/₂ ) won at Texas 45-38, winning yardage 573-530 and yards-per-play 8.4 to 6.2. Other categories were relatively even (though Texas had two fourth-down failures).
- LSU (-14) beat Florida 42-28, winning yardage 511-457, yards-per-play 10.6 to 5.4, and turnovers 1-0. Surprisingly, Florida ran 84 plays, compared to just 48 for LSU thanks to a time-of-possession edge of almost two-to-one.
- LSU (-11¹/₂ ) beat Auburn only 23-20, but won yardage 508-287, yards-per-play 5.8 to 4.2, and third downs 47 percent to 28 percent. Here, the favorite lost turnovers 2-1 and had a pair of fourth-down failures.
Lessons? Both offenses are explosive — capable of making big plays that juice the yards-per-play numbers. Both defenses are prone to allowing yardage and third-down conversions against decent offenses — at least more than you’d expect given historic program expectations. Neither defense impressed at forcing turnovers versus their toughest opponents.
Unless Alabama’s production is hobbled by a gimpy Tua Tagovailoa, this is likely to be a shootout with both offenses moving up and down the field. The straight-up and ATS winner should be determined by which offense hits pay dirt on or immediately after big plays.
Sharps love LSU at +7, but are not yet taking aggressive positions below that.
