During the next two months, NFL bettors must figure out how to handle games involving very bad teams that benefit from losing rather than winning.
Franchises with the worst records get the best draft picks the following summer, which they can use to select potential superstar college talent, or trade to other teams to stockpile contributors. So, being the No. 32 competitor in a 32-team league is much better than being 26th or 22nd on the totem pole in terms of building for the future.
There are four teams currently “battling” to be the worst. Cincinnati (0-7), Miami (0-6), Washington (1-6), and Atlanta (1-6). Washington’s win came at Miami, so the quartet is 1-24 when not playing each other.
Markets have been slow to “catch down.” In the last six weeks as that group is 5-16 against the spread excluding the Washington/Miami matchup.
The Redskins are in action Thursday night, visiting the Minnesota Vikings (8:20, FOX/NFL Network). The likely closing point spread around Minnesota -15 ¹/₂ or -16 hints at what will cause recurring headaches for handicappers. Lay a very high number, or back a terrible team?
Washington is bad. But, it doesn’t need to lose by three touchdowns to stay in the backwards race. Similar story this weekend for two others at slightly lower numbers. Miami is +14¹/₂ at Pittsburgh (a game we’ll discuss in more depth Monday). Cincinnati is +13 in Los Angeles on Sunday against the Rams. Only Atlanta continues to get (inexplicable) market respect as a short home underdog to Seattle.
Will the dregs be blowout fodder the rest of the season? Or will they show enough initiative to at least sneak below the number in garbage time? Let’s look at recent form for hints.
- Washington, when not playing Miami, has scored 0, 7, and 3 points the past month. Its last five losses overall have been by nine, 26, 21, 16, and 10 points. The nine was in a virtual mud-wrestling match with San Francisco last Sunday … meaning it might have been a bigger loss in normal conditions. There’s no evidence yet that Washington can be trusted. Maybe that changes Thursday.
- Miami definitely has picked up its intensity since veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced Josh Rosen. Veterans want to get their numbers! Miami rallied to cover in a 17-16 loss to Washington, then hung very tough at Buffalo last week. Miami should be considered for value bets as long as Fitzpatrick is healthy and the spreads are high.
- Cincinnati has been outgained 460-291, 497-250, 514-370, 326-175, 416-306, and 572-316 since its stunningly close season-opening loss at Seattle. Wait until the defense competes before investing. Veteran QB Andy Dalton could provide back-door value at high spreads.
- Atlanta opponents are averaging 35 points-per-game the last five weeks, all Falcons non-covers. Same warning about the defense. Not smart to back Atlanta until its point spreads reflect the new reality. Down the road, either Matt Ryan or Matt Schaub could provide value at higher spreads.
