Sports bettors riding the Mets’ recent wave have earned a nice profit since the All-Star break. But a schedule that temporarily has been very easy is about to get difficult again.
After their current series with the lowly Miami Marlins ends Wednesday, the Mets will be looking at the Nationals and Braves for a week. A brief respite versus the Royals will be followed by the Indians, Braves, Cubs, Phillies, Nationals and Phillies again.
Everyone but the Royals is fighting for a playoff spot. That will be 24 games out of 27 against current contenders. The Mets are now live in the wild-card race, but may be distant also-rans by Labor Day after that daunting slate.
How should bettors handle this handicapping challenge? Should they stop riding the wave because it could peter out? What if the fun is just starting?
- First, make the Mets prove they matter again. This is largely the same roster that went 8-17 versus contenders prior to the break. Maybe the bullpen issues have been fixed. Maybe there’s better team chemistry. Maybe losing inconsistent Robinson Cano will be a blessing in disguise for run production. Let good things happen against quality before making serious investments.
- Next, evaluate whether or not oddsmakers and sharps already have adjusted. While it’s true the Mets had a great run after the break, they were pricey favorites on the road last week. The cat was out of the bag by the White Sox series. If the Mets truly are “equal to wild-card contenders,” but the market is already pricing them that way, there’s no betting value. Never forget to read the market.
- Finally, try to get an accurate read on the skill-sets and mindsets of opponents. Dominating the White Sox and Pirates may have been much more about what had gone wrong with those franchises than what the Mets were doing right. Review recent form for divisional rivals Atlanta, Washington, and Philadelphia at the very least. Serious bettors know what all 30 MLB teams are doing.
VSiN alerted readers to a possible “reversal of fortune” for the Mets when the schedule first turned from hard to soft. It’s time to be on the lookout for a reversal of the reversal.
What’s exciting, though, is that the Mets could make a legitimate playoff run if they hold their own. And this front-loaded starting rotation is well-suited to performing well in the playoffs. Jacob deGrom has a 3.27 xFIP and a 1.07 WHIP (xFIP is a fielding independent measure that runs along the same scale as ERA, while WHIP is walks plus hits allowed per inning). Zack Wheeler’s numbers were 3.77 and 1.23 entering Tuesday’s start. Noah Syndergaard was also solid at 3.95 and 1.21.
Baseball fans and bettors are about to find out if a new incarnation of “Miracle Mets” mania is on the horizon. It’s more likely than it seemed a week-and-a-half ago, when William Hill had them at 500/1 to win the NL East.
