VSiNtelligence: There’s a potentially large fatigue advantage for bettors to consider in Tuesday’s only professional game featuring a New York team as the fresh New York Islanders host the weary Winnipeg Jets. The Isles haven’t played since defeating Columbus on Saturday. Winnipeg went overtime in New Jersey on Saturday, then AGAIN in the Garden against the Rangers on Sunday night (both 4-3 victories for the Jets, Sunday’s coming in a shootout).
This will be Winnipeg’s seventh game in the last 12 days (fifth on the road). New York has played only twice since last Tuesday, and hasn’t played farther away than Boston since Nov. 10.
In betting markets, the Islanders (13-9-1-2) have been a pleasant surprise for investors thus far … showing a profit just above 5.5 units through 25 games. Winnipeg (16-8-1-1) is up just below three units against stiffer money lines.
VSiN looks forward to covering New York sports from a betting perspective in this exclusive web feature seven days a week.
Other notes … VSiN has mentioned in the past that head-coaching changes often come after bad point-spread runs. It’s not that the coach’s “job” is to cover spreads. But, point spreads reflect how a team “should” be performing based on talent. Before firing Mike McCarthy late Sunday, Green Bay had failed to cover three in a row, was 2-5-1 ATS its prior eight games, 4-10-1 ATS its prior 15 dating back to last season. The Packers had a couple of overtime covers in 2017 as favorites. Their ATS record “at the end of regulation” is 6-16-1 the last 23 games. So they weren’t playing to expectations. (Sure, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t always been at full health, but the market adjusts for that!)
Coaches who have been with their current teams at least three seasons and are also suffering through poor ATS performances in 2018: Dan Quinn of Atlanta (3-9 ATS), and Todd Bowles of the Jets (4-8 ATS).
— The Jets did cover Sunday at Tennessee, but it was one of the most misleading results of the day. An early interception return for a touchdown created illusions for scoreboard watchers. Tennessee would win total yardage 403-280 on 6.7 to 4.3 yards per play. Drive Points (those scored on drives of 60 yards or more) went 20-0 to the Titans in their 26-22 victory. The Jets didn’t score an offensive touchdown, failing to hit pay dirt from the red zone again on multiple occasions.
— Another misleading result from the AFC East handicappers should note: Miami beat Buffalo 21-17, but the Bills won total yardage 415-175 on 6.3 to 3.5 yards per play. Buffalo lost the turnover category 3-1, while also missing a field goal and failing on a fourth-down try (virtual turnovers). The Bills host the Jets on Sunday.
— We’ll monitor betting developments in college football’s final four throughout December. For now, early lines suggest a win in the range of 33-22 for Clemson over Notre Dame, and a 47-33 shootout victory for Alabama over Oklahoma. The public generally bets favorites and Overs in playoff-style football, with sharps (professional wagerers) waiting for lines to move before buying back on underdogs and Unders.
