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After Sabrina Ionescu’s game-winning, step-back 3-pointer in Game 3, it almost seemed destined the WNBA Finals between the Liberty and Minnesota Lynx would go the distance.

And lo and behold, the Lynx squeezed out a two-point home win to send the WNBA Finals to a winner-take-all Game 5 on Sunday (8 p.m. Eastern, ESPN).

It has been an all-time classic series with three of the four matchups decided by one score. Game 2 was the only bout that was clear-cut from tip-off until the final horn.

So, which team will prevail and win the WNBA Finals? Let’s examine the matchup closer and offer a prediction and pick for Game 5 on Sunday night at Barclays Center.

The spread for this game opened at 3.5 points in favor of the Liberty. Nevertheless, it didn’t take long before it ballooned to as high as six points.

While that six points might seem a little salty, especially considering three of the four games have finished with a margin of three points or less, there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the Liberty taking care of business on their home court.

For one, they dominated Minnesota at Barclays in Games 1 and 2. Except for the last five minutes of Game 1, in what was a historic collapse, New York has accumulated massive leads against Minnesota on its home floor.

In fact, the Liberty have outscored Minnesota by 29 points in the combined 35 remaining minutes from Game 1 and all 40 minutes of Game 2.

They have a net rating of +10.6 across their six home games in the postseason, boasting a 5-1 record in that stretch.

The other consideration in this spot, which has been a major factor throughout the series, is rebounding.

During their two home games in the finals, the Liberty have put together an outrageous offensive rebounding percentage of 44%, averaging 16.5 second-chance points in the process. 

For context, the leading team in offensive rebounding percentage this season was the Dallas Wings, who finished nearly 10 percent lower (34.6%) than that number throughout the 2024 campaign.

Allowing an opponent like the Liberty — who had the highest offensive rating (107.0) during the regular season — an abundance of second-chance opportunities has been, and will continue to be, the Achilles heel for the Lynx.

And I expect Minnesota’s issues on the defensive glass will come at the most inopportune times in Game 5. Get ready for the ticker-tape parade through the Canyon of Heroes.

Pick: Liberty -5.5 (-110, Caesars)

Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.