The New York Islanders will close out a very disappointing season by hosting the playoff-bound Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday night. Ten months ago, these two teams met in a Game 7 to go to the Stanley Cup. This time around, the two clubs are playing for virtually nothing, as the Bolts are looking ahead to Game 1 of the playoffs and the Isles are headed for the links. 

And while the Islanders are deserving to be underdogs at home — they are 24 points and 56 goals behind the Bolts in the standings — this is a good spot to target the Isles against a team that will approach this contest like a preseason game. 

The Lightning have played a ton of hockey over the past three seasons, so getting into the playoffs fresh and healthy is priority no. 1 for a team looking to win its third Stanley Cup in a row. Thus, it’s quite possible that head coach Jon Cooper elects to rest plenty of regulars with his team playing on the second consecutive night.

You could argue that the Lightning still have to win to ensure they finish in the No. 2 spot in the Atlantic Division, ahead of Boston, but that would put them into the tougher side of the Eastern Conference bracket, facing a first-round series with Toronto and then likely a showdown with the Panthers — who just won the Presidents’ Trophy — in Round 2. The Carolina Hurricanes are no pushover of course and anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but, on paper, the overall path through the Metropolitan Division is softer than it is in the Atlantic. 

The Islanders, meanwhile, have no reason to rest players and will look to go into the offseason feeling good about themselves by putting forth a decent effort in their last home game until October. 

Even in a season that has been uncharacteristically dominated by the chalk, this is a fine spot to target some big underdogs. Over the last five “normal” seasons (not including 2019-20 or 2020-21), NHL underdogs that closed +160 or longer have gone 9-16 in their final game of the regular season. That’s just a 36% win rate, but if you bet $100 on all 25 of those contests, you’d be up $216 for a +8.6% ROI. It’s a small sample, but it does back up the notion that a lot of these playoff-bound teams use this opportunity as an exhibition game, while the underdogs try to go into the offseason feeling good about themselves.

In most circumstances, it’s best to avoid betting on narratives or trying to handicap motivation, but there are rare situations on a sports calendar where being on top of these scenarios and being quick to move off lineup news can be a boon for a bettor. 

Neither team has anything to really play for at UBS Arena on Friday night, but given the lineup uncertainty surrounding the Bolts, the Isles are certainly worth a shot as a home underdog. 

The Bet: New York Islanders +150 or better