The Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers will drop the puck on the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden. Despite playing at home, the Rangers are +110 underdogs for Game 1. The Over/Under for the series opener is set at 5.5, with the under juiced to -125.

As we saw on Tuesday night, offense will define the Western Conference Finals. That will not be the case in the East, as the two best goaltenders in the NHL are set to square off for the right to send their team to the Stanley Cup Final.

After looking a bit out of sorts during stretches of Round 1 against the Penguins, Igor Shesterkin is back to his world-beating self heading into the Eastern Conference Finals. The 26-year-old skated to a .945 save percentage and a +14.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in the seven games against Carolina. Shesterkin was the MVP of a series in which the Rangers were out-shot, 235-183, and allowed 118 high-danger scoring chances.

There’s no reason to doubt Shesterkin’s form at the moment, but it is worth noting the competition he’s gone up against so far in the playoffs. When Shesterkin stares down Andrei Vasilevskiy on Wednesday night it will be just the second game all postseason where he’s being tasked with going up against the opposition’s starter. The only other contest Shesterkin has had with a No. 1 goalie was Game 7 of Round 1 when the Rangers defeated Tristan Jarry in overtime. Jarry had missed the last two weeks of the regular season and first six games of the playoffs with a broken foot.

So while Shesterkin has been great — especially of late — the Rangers have still needed the maximum amount of games and had to win five elimination games to get to this point, despite playing against teams that posted save percentages of .896 and .891, respectively.

In all likelihood, the Rangers will face a much stronger performance from Vasilevskiy, which means New York will need to find another level at 5-on-5. Through 14 games, no team in the entire postseason field has posted a lower expected goals share (39.7 percent) or high-danger scoring chance rate (35.8 percent) at even strength than the Rangers. Additionally, no team comes close to New York’s 215 high-danger scoring chances allowed.

The good news for the Rangers on Wednesday night is the Lightning are not the type of team that will come out and impose their will right out of the gates in a Game 1. Tampa has made a habit of taking a more conservative approach in series-openers in order to download information and feel their way into the matchup. Additionally, the Lightning will know that New York’s clinical offense feasts on mistakes, so they may even go more conservative than usual. And that doesn’t even mention that this is Tampa’s first game in nine days, so the Bolts could be a little rusty out of the gate.

The Lightning will likely have the lion’s share of the puck and the scoring chances in this game, but it should take some time for both of these sides to get their bearings on Wednesday night. 

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.