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When bettors talk about “value,” it’s often associated with an underdog. However, sometimes there is value backing the favorite. I think that’s the case this Sunday when the Dolphins travel to face to Detroit.
Fresh off his “Hard Knocks” fame and doing up-downs with the players, Lions coach Dan Campbell has Detroit sitting at 1-5 in the awful NFC. After playing tight games early on, the Lions have been blown out in their past two by a combined score of 53-6.
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Yes, Detroit is dealing with injuries, but I also think teams start to lose interest in “players’ coaches” when they aren’t winning. We’ve seen this in the past with guys like Wade Phillips and Anthony Lynn. The defense has been bad all year, but the most alarming thing about the Lions is the offense hasn’t scored a touchdown since Oct. 2.
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I expect the Dolphins’ offense to look much better in Tua Tagovailoa’s second game back from a concussion. Miami scored just 16 points against the Steelers, though the Dolphins should feast on a Detroit defense that ranks last in total defense and scoring defense. The Lions can at least say they don’t rank last in rush defense. They rank second-to-last.
Before Tagovailoa’s injury, Miami beat Baltimore and Buffalo and was being talked about as one of the top teams in the NFL. Now the Dolphins are laying just over a field goal to a sinking Lions squad. I’ll lay the short number on the road here.
The play: Dolphins -3.5.
