A 200-1 shot when Heisman Trophy odds opened in the spring, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is now the odds-on favorite. His stock is peaking, and the Tigers have not been this hyped since Nick Saban was their coach.
Burrow turned the tide against Saban’s defense last week, connecting on 31 of 39 passes for 393 yards and three touchdowns in a 46-41 win at Alabama. A year after totaling only 16 touchdown passes, Burrow has 33 through nine games.
But if there ever were a prime time to play LSU, this seems to be it. The wildest parties usually lead to the worst hangovers, so a week after looking dominant against the Crimson Tide, the Tigers could be in for an emotional letdown at Mississippi on Saturday.
The Rebels, who have covered five of their past six games, recently displayed an improved defense in a 24-17 loss to Texas A&M and a 20-14 loss at Auburn. Mississippi also has the SEC’s No. 1 rushing offense (247.4 yards per game), an essential element in controlling the clock and keeping Burrow on the sideline in a dogfight.
The pick: Mississippi, +21½.
Indiana Hoosiers (+14½) over PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS: After their first loss of the season at Minnesota, and with Ohio State on deck, the Nittany Lions are another team in a potential letdown spot. Tom Allen has coached the Hoosiers to four consecutive Big Ten wins and a 7-2 record. Penn State won last year’s meeting 33-28, but Indiana had a big edge in total yards, 554 to 417.
IOWA HAWKEYES (-3) over Minnesota Golden Gophers: As a home underdog last week, coach P.J. Fleck guided the Gophers to their biggest win of the decade. This looks like the perfect time for a fall, which is one reason situational handicappers are playing the favorite. Minnesota’s 9-0 record includes just three road wins, all against weak defenses (Fresno State, Purdue and Rutgers).
The Hawkeyes have dealt with tough luck in Big Ten play, losing three times by a total of 14 points. All of the losses were to ranked teams — Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin — with a combined record of 22-5. Iowa has the nation’s No. 4 scoring defense (11.7 points per game), a senior quarterback and a four-game win streak in this rivalry. The Gophers have not won in Iowa City since 1999.
BAYLOR BEARS (+10½) over Oklahoma Sooners: The unbeaten Bears are disrespected home ’dogs. In his past six games as an underdog, Baylor coach Matt Rhule is 6-0 ATS with five straight-up wins. Defensive problems are resurfacing for the Sooners, who allowed a total of 89 points to Iowa State and Kansas State over the past two weeks.
Last week: 1-3
Season: 13-21-2
