After watching the Atlanta Braves whittle away their divisional lead during June, the New York Mets have started to heat up in July with five wins in their last seven games. The Mets have been especially hot this week, winning four of their last five contests and scoring 29 runs along the way.

That kind of offensive output will likely be hard to come by on Friday night against Pablo Lopez of the Miami Marlins. 

Lopez checks into Citi Field with a 2.97 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 94 innings this season. And while his 3.85 xERA and 3.48 xFIP suggest he’s got some negative regression coming his way, those are still solid numbers. It’s a similar story when it comes to Lopez’s Statcast profile. The 26-year-old ranks in the 75th percentile in whiff rate and 86th percentile in chase rate, so he’s among the best in the MLB at getting swings and misses. 

Lopez’s batted-ball data doesn’t jump off the page, but the Mets rank 24th in the Major Leagues in hard-hit rate, so his biggest weakness matches up pretty well with this lineup. 

On the other side of the starting pitching equation will be veteran Chris Bassitt, fresh off a stint on the Covid-list. Overall, Bassitt has been an effective pitcher in his first season for the Mets, but things started to take a downturn in the starts leading up to his positive test. Over his last eight starts, Bassitt has allowed 29 earned runs on 46 hits, 14 walks and, most alarmingly, nine home runs in 47.1 innings of work. 

Although Bassitt’s 3.46 xFIP over that span suggests he hasn’t been as bad as his statline suggests, it still makes backing him as a decent favorite a risky proposition until he can shake his issues with the longball. 

Although the Mets sport better overall numbers and are the stronger team compared to Miami, this pitching matchup should tilt the scales back towards the Marlins enough to make them interesting at this number.

Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model agrees with that notion and projects the Fish as a +126 underdog on Friday night, so the Miami moneyline has some value in a sell-high spot on the Mets.

Miami Marlins +145 – BetMGM