The New York Mets will face the Miami Marlins in the second game of their three-game series in South Beach, fresh off a 5-3 victory last night. These two teams just played a four-game set last week, meaning the two sides are quite familiar with each other.
The Mets have won four of their last five against the Marlins, helping them stay five games ahead of the division rival Atlanta Braves.
With Chris Bassitt and Trevor Rogers toeing the rubber for this afternoon’s game, let’s take a look at how to bet this matchup.
Marlins vs. Mets odds, picks (4:10 PM ET, WPIX)
Mets -1.5 (+110, BetMGM)
This one is pretty straightforward – I don’t trust Rogers. The 24-year-old has plenty of potential, but he isn’t there yet, carrying a 5.83 ERA with him into a matchup against one of the best offenses in baseball.
The Mets have scored the second-most runs, have the second-highest team batting average, lead the league in sacrifice flies, and have the third-highest BABIP. They get it done on fundamental hitting without relying on the long ball, which is a great fit against Rogers.
Rogers ranks 130th among starting pitchers with only a 40.1 percent ground ball percentage. He also carries a robust .318 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The Mets should be able to small-ball Rogers to death.
The Mets have the fourth-highest scoring differential this season, and I’ll back them to win by at least two runs.
Pete Alonso over 0.5 Home Runs (+290 BetMGM)
The Polar Bear has been on fire over the last month, hitting .282 with nine home runs over the last 30 days, which is tied for the second-most over that stretch.
Pete Alonso celebrates a home run against the Astros. Getty ImagesRogers has given up nine home runs this season in only 58.2 innings pitched – that’s a home run every 6.46 innings pitched. While Alonso has only hit four of his 20 home runs this season against left-handed pitching, it’s hard to count him out against a pitcher that has been serving them up all season.
Alonso at +290 odds, I’ll back the batter that’s tied for the fourth-most home runs this season to send one into the outfield seats.
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Over 7.5 (-115 BetMGM)
Both of these teams enjoy scoring plenty of runs. The Mets, as mentioned above, have one of the highest-scoring offenses in baseball. Miami, on the other side, isn’t as feeble as many think they are – they’re in the middle of the pack, tied for 14th in total runs scored with 310 on the season.
The Mets have an O/U record of 38-29-5, with six of their last nine games hitting the over. Miami is similar – their O/U record on the season is 36-32-1, with four of their last six going over.
Both of these pitchers have given up plenty of runs this season, with the Mets offense capable of exploding and piling it on in any given game. I’ll back the over.
