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A big part of betting is knowing when to buy low and sell high. Recent results have a heavy impact on how a team is bet and finding the right time to enter the market.

The betting market is understandably very high on the New York Mets right now. They have won 15 of their last 20 games heading into Sunday and are fresh off an impressive series win that put the Atlanta Braves at a safer distance in the NL East.

Entering Sunday, the Mets were averaging 6.1 runs per game over their previous 13 contests and had scored a whopping 35 runs in their previous five. The Mets’ offense ranked fourth in the MLB with a +114 wRC+ and fifth with a .324 wOBA.

Those are scary numbers to fade, especially with a pitcher make his season debut.

Freeport’s own Justin Dunn — a former Mets first-round pick — will start for the Reds on Monday night at Citi Field after a lengthy stint on the injured list and in Triple-A. Dunn’s career numbers are decent, he has a 3.94 ERA over 102 ²/₃ MLB innings, but it’s anybody’s guess how he will fare in his first outing for Cincinnati. He should be plenty pumped, however, to pitch in front of friends and family against the team that traded him.

Dunn will certainly have his work cut out for him against the in-form Chris Bassitt, but there is a chance he will catch the Mets in a let-down spot coming off the highly emotional series against the Braves.

It’s an ugly bet and one you’re more likely to lose than win, but everything in betting comes down to price, and the number on the red-hot Mets is too high, putting some value on the lowly Reds on Monday night.

The Play: Reds +240.