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The Philadelphia Phillies blew out the Houston Astros, 7-0, in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series. The victory flipped the odds for the best-of-7 set, with Philadelphia now sitting as -155 favorites to lift the trophy. 

Any win in a race to four is obviously monumental, but the Phillies’ win on Tuesday night also gives Aaron Nola the chance to pitch the team to a commanding 3-1 series lead. 

Nola and the Phils are slight -104 underdogs against the Astros in Game 4.

Spread: HOU -1.5 (+150) vs. PHI +1.5 (-185)

Moneyline: HOU (-110) vs. PHI (-110)

Total: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)

Also read: How to bet on baseball

Although Nola struggled in Game 1, there really doesn’t seem to be any reason to be alarmed. It was his first poor outing since August, and he’s been generally dominant down the stretch and into the postseason. 

More than anything, it looked like Nola just was a bit overcome by the moment as his usually best-in-class command abandoned him against the Astros. 

Nola finished the season ranked second in MLB in walk rate but allowed two free passes, along with six hits, in 4.1 innings of work in the series opener. 

A better outing will be required out of Nola, as he’ll likely be offered very little margin for error against Cristian Javier. 

Javier is a unique starting pitcher, but he’s incredibly effective. Mostly a two-pitch hurler, the 25-year-old relies on his four-seam fastball and slider to carry him through the bulk of his outings. Javier has a changeup and a curveball in his pocket, but he throws them roughly 10 percent of the time.

Despite only having two plus pitches, Javier posted elite numbers for the Astros in 2022. Per StatCast, the native of the Dominican Republic ranked in the 96th percentile in xERA, 98th percentile in expected batting average, 95th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate. 

With two days off before Tuesday’s blowout, both bullpens should be in decent shape, but the Astros will have a slight advantage since they only used Ryne Stanek for two-thirds of an inning and then went to Jose Urquidy for the last three frames in mop-up duty in Game 3. Houston has all hands on deck. 

The Phillies ended up using four relievers (Connor Brogdon, Kyle Gibson, Nick Nelson and Andrew Bellatti) behind Ranger Suarez, but Rob Thomson will have his high-leverage arms ready to go. And of that bunch, only Nelson was really taxed.

We’ve yet to see a pitchers’ duel in this series, and every game so far has featured one team jumping out to a five-run lead. That pattern should break on Wednesday, with Javier and Nola on the bump. This one has the makings for a pitchers’ duel and with both bullpens in decent shape behind two elite starters, there’s plenty of value on the under.

Under 7.5 (-120) BetMGM