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The Diamondbacks and Guardians are set for their first meeting of the season tonight, and Jules Posner of The Action Network is here to give his best bet (video above).
Cleveland will send Cal Quantrill to the hill Monday, while Arizona will counter with Zach Davies, who is fresh off the injured list.
For Posner, he believes the pitching matchup favors hosts Cleveland.
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Diamondbacks vs. Guardians prediction
“So far this season at home, Cal Quantrill has a 3.19 ERA,” Posner says.
That figure comes up against a 4.40 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP for Quantrill, who doesn’t tend to strike out a lot of batters. However, Posner rates Quantrill’s numbers as solid even considering his low K rate.
Cal Quantrill Getty ImagesOn the flip-side, D’Backs starting pitcher Davies has struggled away from home this season. Entering Monday’s matchup, the right-hander has a 4.26 ERA away from home against a 4.44 FIP and 4.30 xFIP.
Additionally, Arizona’s offense has also faltered in recent games away from home. Over the past few weeks, they only have a 43 team wRC+ against right-handed pitchers away from home.
Lastly, Posner believes the difference in motivation for this matchup — Cleveland still has the division left to play for, while Arizona has virtually nothing left to motivate them — gives one final edge to the hosts.
For all those reasons, back the Guardians Moneyline tonight in Cleveland.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians pick
Guardians -160 (BetMGM)
