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Two elite MLB teams battle tonight in Houston as the New York Mets face off against Astros.

In the first game of a short two-game set, the Mets will feature Trevor Williams, who will match up with Jose Urquidy.

Both of these pitchers have a history of giving up hard contact to opposing hitters. With neither pitcher overpowering anyone and both with unheralded prospect backgrounds, tonight’s game should feature plenty of offense.

The Mets have the second-best offense in terms of runs per game (5.04), just behind the Yankees for best in baseball. They also feature the best batting average and OBP this season.

Between these two vaunted and lineups, this could be a spot for an offensive explosion in tonight’s contest.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: NYM +1.5 (-165) vs. HOU -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline: NYM (+115) vs. HOU (-135)

Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under (-115)

Trevor Williams (1-3, 3.53) vs. Jose Urquidy (5-3, 4.99)

Breaking down the pitcher’s matchup is a compelling one. The initial reaction would be that the Mets are at a huge disadvantage. However, the stats tell the opposite story. Trevor Williams has actually improved — drastically — this season compared to years past.

Just last season, Williams was averaging over three walks per nine innings in each of the past two seasons. In 35.2 innings this year, Williams has reversed course. His 2.02 walks per nine are a career-best, even better than his 2018 season when he had a 14-10 record with a 3.11 ERA for the Pirates.

To be fair, that 2018 season appears to be an outlier, but he has made some considerable improvements this season to explain his better results. Last season, his best pitch was his changeup which he has decided to lean on significantly more, with five percent more usage this year compared to last per Baseball Savant.

Lastly, his hard-hit rate is significantly down compared to even his best year. Last year his hard-hit rate was a career-high 31.1%, while this year, it is a career-low of 23.6%, according to FanGraphs.

While Trevor Williams appears to be improving, Jose Urquidy looks to be digressing as the fifth starter for the Astros. Urquidy’s hard-hit rate is sky-high, coming in at 36.3%, fifth-highest among qualified pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched (FanGraphs).

Moreover, his xERA (expected ERA) is 6.16 versus his 4.99 so there could be some regression coming here.

Overall, it appears that Williams is turning a corner and is a better pitcher than Jose Urquidy right now.

The Astros do have the benefit of an off day Monday, so they should be well-rested coming into Tuesday. This would explain why the Mets are underdogs in Houston, despite not being an underdog in five games and only twice in their last 10.

In those two games as an underdog, the Mets are 1-1 and have won 7-3 in the last ten. Digging deeper, on one day rest, the Astros are just 4-4, whereas the Mets are 32-22 with no rest and 8-7 as an away underdog.

The status of JD Davis and Jeff McNeil are worth monitoring up until game time; they are both listed as questionable. If both or either of them play, the Mets are a fine bet to win tonight’s game in Houston. At the time of writing, WynnBet had the best odds for this game at +117.

Without them, it is better to just fade Urquidy in today’s game. Back the Mets to put up some runs today in their battle in Houston.

Mets ‘over’ 3.5 runs scored (-140) — Bet365