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Six weeks ago it looked like the New York Mets were in cruise control in the NL East. Sitting pretty with a 10.5-game lead on June 1, it was next stop, October for Buck Showalter and the Metropolitans.

The Atlanta Braves had other ideas.

As the Mets swooned to a 13-12 record in June, the Braves caught fire, going 29-8 with a +88 run differential since June 1. Atlanta’s red-hot stretch has whittled the Mets’ divisional lead to just 1.5 games and bookmakers have tightened the odds to win the NL East to -155 for the Mets and +140 for the Braves.

So while it’s hyperbolic and a cliché to say a game on July 11 will have a “playoff feel to it,” this is a pretty high-stakes series for both teams as we approach the All-Star Break.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: NYM +1.5 (-200) vs. ATL -1.5 (+165)

Moneyline: NYM (+110) vs. ATL (-130)

Total: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)

Monday’s pitching matchup should only add to the intrigue as both teams will send their respective aces to the hill at Truist Park for a game that is pretty close to a toss-up with the Braves currently sitting as -130 favorites.

Everything checked out for Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.26 ERA) in his last outing — his first since May 18 — so there doesn’t seem to be any cause for concern with the 37-year-old going forward. Although he was taking on a soft opponent, Scherzer ticked every box he was asked to against the Reds on July 5. The three-time Cy Young Award winner allowed two hits, no walks and struck out 11 of 21 batters on his way to six scoreless innings.

Scherzer’s start against the Reds falls in line with what we’ve seen out of the former World Series champion as he’s posted a career-best 27.3% Hard-Hit Rate and ranks inside the top-10 percentile in xwOBA through his first nine starts with the Mets. Scherzer still gets barreled up more often than he’d like, but when you’re striking out over 30% of batters faced and handing out less than two walks per 9 innings, you can live with the odd dinger here and there.

As dominant as Scherzer has been this season, you could make the argument that he is actually the B-side in this pitching matchup considering his opponent. Quietly, Max Fried (9-2, 2.52 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and he’s only getting better. 

Over his last eight starts, Fried has pitched to a 1.72 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, and 0.99 WHIP through 52.1 innings of work. In that span Fried has a 52.1 groundball rate, is striking out 8.25 batters per 9 innings, and allowing just 0.34 home runs and 1.55 walks per 9.

Fried’s season-long expected indicators are not too far off from his 2.52 ERA — his xERA is 2.81 and xFIP is 2.94 — so, like Scherzer, his successful first half passes the sniff test.

A pitching matchup like this screams under, but the Mets bullpen should give bettors some pause, especially since Edwin Diaz has worked back-to-back games. And with the Mets likely to err on the side of caution with Scherzer, it’s hard to imagine Showalter allowing his ace to work deep into the night. 

So instead of taking a shot on the full-game Under 7, a play on the Under 3.5 for the First 5 Innings seems a logical choice on Monday night.

F5 Under 3.5 -120 (BetMGM)