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Our MLB betting expert offers his best-betting picks and predictions for Thursday’s matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, scheduled to begin at 7:20 p.m. ET.

A 9-7 victory on Wednesday night bought the New York Mets some much-needed breathing room in the race against the Atlanta Braves. The win vaulted the Mets to a 4.5-game lead over the Braves in the NL East, and they’ll have a chance to extend it even further with Jacob deGrom on the mound at Truist Park in the series finale on Thursday night. 

Most nights, when deGrom takes the hill, he does so as a significant favorite. But that won’t be the case in this contest, as the Mets are currently sitting as -126 favorites against Max Fried and the Braves.

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread: NYM -1.5 (+140) vs. ATL +1.5 (-165)

Moneyline: NYM (-135) vs. ATL (+115)

Total: Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120)

The fact that the game is essentially a coin flip speaks volumes about how good Fried has been for the Braves this season. The 28-year-old owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a .235 batting average against in 138.1 innings of work in 2022. 

While deGrom relies on power and precision to excel, Fried’s pitching approach is slightly different. He won’t rack up a crazy amount of punchouts but instead relies on his ability to hit his spots and keep hitters off balance to induce weak contact and ground balls — he ranks ninth in the MLB in ground ball rate and third in hard-hit percentage.

Keeping up with Jacob deGrom is an unenviable task, but Fried’s numbers and his ability to keep the basepaths clear give him as good a chance as any pitcher. 

As for deGrom, he’s shown incredibly well in his three starts this season. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has logged a 1.62 ERA, 0.42 WHIP and has struck out an absurd 50% of the batters he’s faced in his 16.2 innings of work thus far. 

The Braves did have some modest success against deGrom by plating two runs against him in 5.2 innings, but those scores came on one hit, and the 34-year-old racked up 12 strikeouts despite only facing 19 batters. 

As you’d expect, the public is all over the Under 7 in this matchup. Fried and deGrom is about as good a pitching matchup as you can get in the MLB, and in such an important game, bettors are expecting a tight contest between two aces. According to Action Network’s market data, 80% of the bets on the total in this game have come in on the under, which currently sits at 7 (-108) at FanDuel.

What could give bettors some pause about keeping it simple and flocking to the Under is that these bullpens have been busy over the past two nights, and it would be a surprise if deGrom is allowed to work that deep into the contest, no matter how well he’s throwing. 

Rather than worry about the bullpens, it may make more sense to isolate the starting pitching matchup and back the F5 Under at 3.5.

The Bet: F5 Under 3.5 (-114, FanDuel)