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The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are on a collision course this week as the MLB playoffs get closer. But first, Buck Showalter’s group has to take care of business against the Miami Marlins.
In this part of the season, where one team has everything on the line, and the other has almost nothing to play for, bettors are required to pay a premium on the former. A must-win tax, if you will.
Pablo Lopez, Miami’s starter on Tuesday, has been inconsistent, but his season-long numbers are pretty strong. He has logged a 3.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a .238 batting average against in 167 innings and his 3.59 xFIP suggests that he has pitched a little better than his actual results would imply.
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Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor Getty ImagesThe Mets’ Carlos Carrasco sports very similar numbers. He has pitched to a 3.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .266 batting average against in 145 innings and his 3.38 xFIP also outpaces his actual results.
Although the Mets are a much better team than the Marlins, this pitching matchup is closer than the odds suggest, and the must-win tax is providing a good buy opportunity to bet on the underdogs at Citi Field.
Mets vs. Marlins pick
Marlins +180 (Caesars)
