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After trailing 3-2 in the ninth inning against the Reds, the New York Mets rallied to tie the game before scoring five runs in the top of the tenth to secure an 8-3 win. The victory was the third in four games for the Mets as they maintained their 2.5-game lead in the division over the Braves.
One could argue that New York is feeling the pressure from Atlanta, with the Braves winning 26 of their last 33 games. And while I was more than willing to back the Mets following their come-from-behind victory, it’s hard not to think they’re a bit overvalued with odds as high as -175.
I’m willing to put my theory to the test, so let’s dig into Thursday’s pitching matchup between the Mets and the Marlins.
Marlins vs. Mets MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: MIA (+135) vs. NYM (-165)
Spread: MIA +1.5 (-140) vs. NYM -1.5 (+115)
Total: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Marlins vs. Mets probable pitchers
Daniel Castano (2.42) vs. Trevor Williams (4.34)
Mets vs. Marlins live from Citi Field at 7:10 PM est. Getty ImagesMarlins vs. Mets prediction
What a difference a day can make. With Shohei Ohtani starting against the Marlins on Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Angels closed as a -165 road favorite at some sportsbooks.
And now, a day later, the New York Mets are a -165 favorite with Williams on the mound. Surely the bookmakers aren’t implying that Williams is the equivalent of Ohtani?
Thus, it’s clear that bettors will have to pay a premium simply because of the Mets’ late rally against the Reds.
Interestingly, according to gimmethedog.com, teams that win a game when trailing after eight innings are 942-866 for 16.29 units. However, if we limit our query to only the Mets, we’ll find that they’re 30-29 for a loss of 4.12 units in this situational spot.
While I’m aware that the Marlins (39-41) are two games below .500, their Pythagorean expectation suggests they should be closer to a .516 winning percentage (PCT).
In contrast, the Mets (51-31) and their .622 PCT could be due for some regression by at least four percentage points based on their Pythagorean expectation.
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If we look at both pitching probables, Castano is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts and seven appearances. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention his advanced numbers are also elevated, as evidenced by his 4.10 xERA and 4.61 FIP.
Castano’s problems stem from a lack of command, given his 3.12 BB/9 ratio. While his walks are certainly an issue against other top clubs, he’ll be facing a Mets team that ranks 19th with a 7.9 percent walk rate.
As for Williams, he’ll be making his eighth start of the year. Through 15 appearances, he’s 1-5 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. His advanced metrics also point to a slight regression given his 4.44 xERA and 4.82 FIP.
Williams’s command has been slightly better, considering his 2.76 BB/9 ratio. However, he’s struggled with the long ball, as 15.8 percent of his fly balls have left the park.
I like to use a hard-hit rate game-by-game stat to gauge how a pitcher is trending. In Williams’s past four outings, opponents have a hard-hit rate of over 50 percent in each game. Before I can justify backing the Mets’ right-hander, I’d like to see this number fall below 30 percent.
My recommendation here is solely based on the value Miami offers at the current price. At best, the Mets should be no higher than a -130 favorite in this spot.
Marlins vs. Mets pick
Marlins ML +135 (BetMGM)
