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Eight days ago, the New York Mets were only a half-game ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. However, after matching their best mark of the season with six straight wins, the Mets have extended their lead to three games.
New York will now turn its attention to the lowly Nationals, who have the worst record in the National League at 35-68.
And given the recent form of the Mets team thus far, it will take quite a bit of courage even to consider fading this team at the moment.
Mets vs. Nationals MLB odds
Odds provided by FanDuel
Moneyline: NYM (-245) vs. WSN (+205)
Spread: NYM -1.5 (-140) vs. WSN +1.5 (+115)
Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Mets vs. Nationals probable pitchers
Max Scherzer (2.09) vs. Patrick Corbin (6.49)
Mets vs. Nationals prediction
The first thing that strikes me about this matchup is the total. After opening at 7.5, the number has already been bet up to 8.5. Bettors should glean from this line move that a higher-scoring game is more likely to favor the Mets, given the matchup.
Patrick Corbin (4-14) hasn’t exactly been lights out for the Nationals. He’s lost four straight decisions while allowing at least four runs in each of those outings. Corbin failed to get out of the first inning in his last start after allowing six earned runs and retiring just two batters.
Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesIn his previous meeting against the Mets, he allowed seven runs in 4 1/3 innings in May. Overall, New York’s current lineup is hitting .292 with a .361 wOBA against the left-hander.
To get a better idea of just how much Corbin has struggled, one can look at the quality of contact opposing hitters are making on his pitches. In nine of his past ten games, Corbin has a barrel rate of 40% or higher.
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Even more surprising is that Corbin is getting ahead of hitters with a first-pitch strike rate of 69.5%. However, he’s been unable to put hitters away despite the advantage.
The Nationals have yet to defeat the Mets in either of Corbin’s three starts this season. It’s also worth noting that New York won each of those meetings by at least two runs.
Historically, Scherzer has only three starts against the Nationals, and his teams also won each of those outings by at least two runs. If we turn to the Mets’ recent winning streak, New York covered the run line in five of its six games.
According to our Action Labs database, the Mets are the third-most profitable team on the run line this season at 8.49 units. Moreover, the Nationals are the least profitable team against the run line in this spot, with a loss of 19.36 units.
Lastly, our database shows that against the spread, favorites on a six-game winning streak are up 40.94 units in this spot.
After running the numbers, my model makes the Mets a -243 favorite.
Thus, I think this line is right where it should be. Since I have no intention of stepping in front of this train, I’ll look to play the Mets on the -1.5 run line at -140 odds.
Mets vs. Nationals pick
Mets -1.5 RL (-140)
