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In advance of Friday’s Phillies-Padres MLB matchup in San Diego, Charlie DiSturco of The Action Network is here to share his best bet (video above).
The Phillies claimed the first game of the series 6-2 and will send ace Aaron Nola to the mound Friday. As for the Padres — winners of three straight before Thursday’s loss — they’ll send Mackenzie Gore to the hill.
For DiSturco, he sees a massive edge for the Phillies in the pitching matchup.
“Over the last three starts, [Nola] has given up just two runs over 23 innings,” DiSturco says. “And, he’s lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.11.”
The crazy part, according to DiSturco, is that Nola could still see some positive regression based on his advanced metrics. Entering Friday’s contest, Nola has a 2.73 xERA. Plus, he only has a 3.2 percent walk rate and .219 expected opponent batting average.
Aaron Nola APOn the flip-side, Gore has been torn apart in his last two starts. In his last six-and-one-third innings, Gore has allowed 14 earned runs. Plus, whereas Nola could see positive regression soon, Gore is a negative regression candidate entering Friday’s game.
This season, Gore has a 3.64 ERA on a 4.07 xERA. He also holds a 10.4 percent walk rate and ranks in the bottom 20 percent of baseball in hard-hit rate.
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Add in that the Phillies offense has dominated left-handed pitchers this season — sixth in wRC+, fifth in weighted on-base average and fourth in isolated power — and DiSturco believes they’ll have success Friday in San Diego.
As a result, DiSturco is recommending to back the Phillies Moneyline (-120) and would play it up to -140 with odds from BetMGM.
