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We have a Pirates vs. Red Sox prediction as Boston hosts Pittsburgh for the start of a three-game set at Fenway Park. 

Despite horrendous pitching, the Red Sox narrowly escaped the weekend with a series win, stealing two of three from Baltimore behind a new-look lineup. 

Meanwhile, despite winning on MLB Opening Day, the Pirates dropped two of three to Cincinnati. 

Red Sox games should be high-scoring this season between their poor arms and red-hot bats.

So, I’m looking to bet that angle on Monday’s matchup. 

Moneyline: Pirates (+135) vs. Red Sox (-160)

Spread: Pirates +1.5 (-145) vs. Red Sox -1.5 (-120)

Total: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)

(7:10 p.m. ET.)

Boston’s lineup can mash.

Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Justin Turner all had at least 11 plate appearances against Baltimore with an OPS above 1.000. 

And that doesn’t even include Masataka Yoshida, who went 4-for-13 with three RBIs. 

The Red Sox were an above-average offense last season and could reach new heights this year, as the lineup is more balanced than last year with a wider array of skills and talent.

Boston is fourth in MLB in wRC+ (153) through three games, per FanGraphs. 

Unfortunately, the pitching staff will hold the Red Sox back.

Starting pitchers Tanner Houck, Corey Kluber, and Chris Sale combined to allow 15 runs over 11 ⅓ innings against Baltimore, and the bullpen posted a 4.60 ERA in relief. 

As a result, all three games in the Baltimore-Boston series flew over the total.

The Orioles and Red Sox combined for 50 runs across three games despite average temperatures below 50 degrees.

I expect more of the same on Monday, so I’m betting another Red Sox over. 

Red Sox starting pitcher Kutter Crawford doesn’t inspire much confidence.

He has some decent off-speed stuff, but his four-seamer and cutter continue to get slammed by Major League hitters.

Crawford also posted a 4.15 ERA across 17 ⅓ Spring Training innings, which is fine, but not excellent. 

Pittsburgh’s offense is worse than Baltimore’s, but the Pirates boast plenty of talent. 

Between Bryan Reynolds, an older Oneil Cruz, veteran offseason additions (Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Ji-Man Choi) and young prospects with upside (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Canaan Smith-Njigba), the Pirates should sneak runs past the shaky Boston pitching.

Meanwhile, don’t expect Pirates starter Johan Oviedo to slow down Devers and Co. Oviedo had a breakout season between St. Louis and Pittsburgh last year, but projections profile him with an ERA around 4.50 and under 1.0 fWAR in 2023. 

The Action Network’s PRO model projects the Pittsburgh vs. Boston total at 9.91, providing us plenty of value on the over 9 (-120) number available at BetMGM Sportsbook. 

And given how Red Sox games are trending this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game finish with close to 15 runs. 

Over 9 (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook