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Over the past two weeks, the New York Yankees have played six games against the Tampa Bay Rays, four against the Houston Astros, and three against the Toronto Blue Jays. It was a perfect litmus test for the Yanks, who went into that mini-gauntlet with aspirations of a historic season. The Bombers cleared the hurdle with flying colors, posting a 9-4 record and stretching their lead in the American League East to 11 games.
While the Yankees have another series with the Astros awaiting them later this week, they’ll face a different kind of challenge on Monday night: The 25-49 Oakland Athletics.
As expected the Pinstripes are prohibitive favorites over the last-place Athletics. The Yankees currently sit at -300 behind Jordan Montgomery, while the A’s are coming back at +240. Should the line hold or shorten, this would be the fourth time this season the Bombers closed at -300 or higher this season.
Yankees vs. A’s odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: OAK +2.5 (-120) vs. NYY -2.5 (+100)
Moneyline: OAK (+240) vs. NYY (-300)
Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Tony Kemp, Oakland A’s Getty ImagesA’s vs. Yankees prediction
And even though it’s been a great start to the 2022 MLB season for the chalk — and the Yankees — laying -300 in this spot certainly doesn’t seem appealing. The Bombers just came off an emotional win to close out a spellbinding series against their main rivals for the AL Pennant over the weekend and now will need to get right back at it against an also-ran. Handicapping motivation isn’t something bettors should make a habit of, but there are spots where it is worth considering, especially when dealing with prices like these.
But it isn’t just the spot that makes the Athletics an attractive option on Monday night. The pitching matchup should also open a door for the underdog in this tilt. The A’s will hand the ball to Paul Blackburn, who has been one of the few bright spots for Oakland this season with a 6-3 record, 2.97 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 75.2 innings of work.
Blackburn — like his counterpart Montgomery — isn’t the type of pitcher to rack up K’s, but instead relies on his ability to induce weak contact and avoid giving up walks or home runs. The 28-year-old ranks in the 72nd percentile in average exit velocity, 85th percentile in barrel rate and 75th percentile in BB%.
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Aaron Judge hits a walk off home run Sunday against the Astros Getty ImagesMontgomery, too, boasts a strong batted ball profile, ranking in the 70th percentile in average exit velocity, 77th percentile in hard hit rate and 75th percentile in barrel rate. Like Blackburn, Montgomery does a good job of inducing groundballs, so he’s able to wriggle off the hook despite not having robust strikeout numbers.
While the Yankees lineup is lightyears ahead of Oakland’s, there really isn’t all that much separating the two starting pitchers, at least on current form. Blackburn has the ability to keep pace with Montgomery in this contest and turn this one into a coin flip.
Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model projects the Athletics as a +190 favorite, so even though it’s a bet you lose more often than you win, there’s some decent value on the A’s on Monday night.
A’s vs. Yankees pick
Oakland Athletics +240 (BetMGM)
