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The New York Yankees did it again on Monday night. For the fourth time in their last six games, the Bombers came back from at least three runs down to win, defeating the Oakland A’s, 9-5, as -325 favorites. The victory pushed the Yankees’ record to 54-20 and their lead in the American League East to 12 games. It was the Bombers’ league-leading 23rd come-from-behind win this season.
Tuesday night’s contest with the A’s will present a different kind of challenge for the Pinstripes. The Yanks are once again big favorites at -200, but they’ll be playing behind rookie right-hander J.P. Sears, who is making a spot start in what would normally be Jameson Taillon’s spot.
Sears has performed admirably in his brief MLB career, spinning seven scoreless innings across three appearances, including one start. The 26-year-old southpaw has also been effective in Triple-A, posting a 1.83 ERA in 10 games (eight starts).
The A’s offense is certainly nothing to write home about, so Sears should stand a decent chance on Tuesday night, but his margin for error could be relatively thin with Oakland handing the ball to Frankie Montas.
Yankees vs. A’s odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: OAK +1.5 (-135) vs. NYY -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: OAK (+155) vs. NYY (-190)
Total: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
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Yankees vs. A’s prediction
Despite a 3-7 record, Montas is the ace of the A’s staff with a 3.21 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The 29-year-old’s underlying metrics also look strong as he grades out above average in xWOBA, barrel rate, chase rate, and xERA. A well-rounded, if not dominant pitcher, Montas strikes out more than a batter per frame, has a 48.1% groundball rate, and allows 0.90 home runs per nine innings.
The Athletics used four relievers in Monday night’s loss and their bullpen is already pedestrian to begin with, so it’ll be vital for Montas to provide them with some significant length against this deep Yankees lineup. That isn’t necessarily true for Sears, who likely will have a pretty short leash as he’ll be supported by a fresh, effective bullpen.
Even though Sears has been impressive at both Triple-A and in his brief stint with the Yankees, it’s hard to get behind a rookie pitcher at this kind of price, even if he’s going to be backed up by a strong bullpen and the best offense in baseball.
Josh Donaldson bats against the Oakland A’s Getty ImagesAfter witnessing the Athletics implode on Monday night, you won’t find many bettors eager to go back to Oakland 24 hours later, but the cold reality of betting is that the ugliest bets often provide the best opportunity.
Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model projects the Athletics at +156, so Oakland seems to be the value side in a pitching matchup that should give them a chance to pull the upset.
Yankees vs. A’s pick today
Oakland Athletics +155 (BetMGM)
