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A disappointing offense showing in Game 1 doomed the Yankees to a 4-2 loss, but the betting market hasn’t soured on the Pinstripes. After opening around +145 for Thursday night’s Game 2, the Yanks have taken some money and shortened to +125, depending on where you look. 

Is there still betting value on the Yankees at that number, or should you back the Houston Astros as -145 home favorites behind Framber Valdez? 

The groundball king of the MLB, Valdez finished the 2022 regular season with a 2.82 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and 3.00 ERA. Those numbers were buoyed by Valdez’s absurd 66.5% ground ball rate, which led the majors by a mile (the second-best mark was Logan Webb at 56.7%). Valdez also posted the highest combined rate of ground balls and pop-ups (75.6%) of any starting pitcher in the league.

A master of consistency, Valdez set an MLB record with 25 consecutive quality starts to close out the 2022 regular season. 

Valdez’s counterpart on Thursday, Luis Severino, is a completely different pitcher compared to the Astros southpaw. 

While Valdez relies on guile and consistency, Severino is a high-ceiling pitcher who can overpower any lineup on his day. Despite the difference in style, Severino and Valdez actually have pitched to similar numbers. Severino’s 3.18 ERA is a bit higher compared to his countryman’s, but his expected indicators (2.94 xERA, 3.38 xFIP) are right on par with Valdez’s.

And while their overall numbers don’t show much of an edge in either direction, there is reason to believe that Severino matches up better with Houston than Valdez does against the Pinstripes.

Valdez’s ability to suppress power shows up in his home run rate (0.49 HR/9) and barrel rate, but he ranks in the 16th percentile in average exit velocity and 18th percentile in hard-hit rate this season. Those numbers won’t mean much if the ball is on the ground, but it’s something to keep in mind against a lineup that hit lefties better than all but two offenses this season.

Severino wasn’t dominant in his first start of the postseason against the Guardians, but his stuff looks as strong as ever since returning from the IL in September. He averaged 97.6 mph on his fastball against the Guardians, which immediately raises the ceiling his three-pitch mix (fastball, slider, changeup) against the Astros.

With Houston’s offensive advantage muted because of the splits, this game projects much closer to a coin flip than the odds imply. Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model projects the Yankees as a +118 underdog, so even though they’ve already taken money and moved to +125, there’s still a smidge of value on the Pinstripes in Game 2, but be sure to look around to find the best number.

Yankees (+125, BetMGM)