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The New York Yankees offense is absolutely humming right now. The Bombers have scored 32 runs over their last four games and are averaging 6.7 runs per game over their last 23 contests. In that span, the Yankees have scored at least seven runs nine times and have hit double-digits on five occasions. 

After lighting up Marco Gonzales on Monday, the Pinstripes will now face the tougher task of trying to solve 25-year-old standout Logan Gilbert in the second game of their series with the surging M’s. 

After cementing his spot in Seattle’s rotation with an encouraging rookie season in 2021, Gilbert has continued to impress in his sophomore season. The former first-round pick is 10-4 in 21 starts and boasts a 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 2.3 WAR in 123 innings of work.  

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: SEA +1.5 (-145) vs. NYY -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline: SEA (+140) vs. NYY (-165)

Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

And while Gilbert has electric stuff and can rely on his fastball-slider combination to get him out of jams, his expected indicators do suggest he’s been punching above his weight this season. Gilbert’s 2.78 ERA lags considerably behind his 4.14 xERA and 3.65 xFIP. 

Gilbert’s Statcast profile also should raise some alarms, as he ranks in the second percentile in average exit velocity, fifth percentile in hard-hit rate, and 32nd percentile in expected slugging percentage. Gilbert can rely on his stuff to punch his way out of trouble against any lineup, but a 46.7% hard-hit rate is a recipe for disaster against a red-hot Yankee lineup.

Even with his red flags, Gilbert is still probably the A-side in the pitching matchup against Jameson Taillon on Tuesday night. 

Although Taillon logged six scoreless frames in his last outing, his inconsistent summer has made it hard to trust him against above-average lineups. Taillon has posted a 5.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over his last 10 starts (50.1 innings) and is allowing 1.79 homers per nine innings. 

Taillon’s peripheral numbers during his recent rough patch do suggest he’s been unlucky, as well as ineffective, but his up-and-down form should make bettors a bit weary of laying -165 with him against a strong lineup. Similarly, Gilbert is a prime candidate for negative regression, and his surface-level stats are inflating his value in the betting market. 

Instead of backing one of these pitchers to bring his A-game to the Bronx on Tuesday, bettors could find value by opting to fade both hurlers (plus getting the added benefit of betting on the Yankees offense) and back the Over 8.5.

The Bet: Over 8.5 (-110) — BetMGM