Commercial Content, 21+

NASCAR will be under the lights Saturday at Martinsville, and Nick Giffen of The Action Network is here to give a pair of best bets.

For his first wager, Giffen is looking to the derivative market and a name somewhat down the odds board: AJ Allemendinger Top 10 (+310).

For Giffen, he believes Allemendinger’s track history paired with a new car will lead to success at Martinsville.

“Allemendinger has finished inside the top-10 in one-third of his starts at Martinsville,” Giffen says. “That includes two races where he was in absolute bottom-tier equipment, so if you remove those two, it’s actually seven out of 19 races or more than a third of the time.”

Additionally, Allemendinger has finished inside the top-10 in five of the last 10 races at this track. Add in that the new NASCAR next-gen car was designed with road racing in mind – a type of track on which Allemendinger thrives – and Giffen believes he’s primed for a good finish Saturday night.

As for his second best bets, Giffen is targeting Ryan Blaney to produce an outright win at consensus +750 odds.

Much like Allemendinger, Martinsville is a very strong track for Blaney. He owns a top-five finish in five of his past eight starts and has led 16.8 percent of all laps in the last four Spring races at the track.

Plus, Giffen’s model gives Blaney an edge based on his implied probability to win the race.

“My model gives Blaney a 12.8 percent chance to win. That outpaces the 11.4 percent we’re getting with the implied odds,” Giffen says.