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Wednesday was absolute carnage at the National Bank Open, also known as the Canadian Open or Canada Masters, in Montreal. The top three seeds – Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz, and Stefanos Tsitsipas – all lost, which has completely blown up the draw and opened the door for basically any of the 16 players remaining to take home the title. 

Even with the top seeds dropping like flies, there’s plenty of star power on the docket with Nick Kyrgios, Jannik Sinner, and Felix Auger-Aliassime all in action on Thursday.

But it’s another electrifying player, Gael Monfils, who could provide the best betting value in the Round of 16:

Time: Approx. 7 p.m. ET

One of the most entertaining players on the ATP Tour, Gael Monfils, continued to shake off the rust of a three-month break with a win over the in-form Maxime Cressy on Wednesday. Monfils needed a couple of tiebreaks to get the job done, but with two matches now under his belt in Montreal, La Monf’s fitness can probably be trusted for his upcoming match with rising Brit Jack Draper. 

It’s been quite the break-out season for the 20-year-old Draper. Ranked outside the top 200 in January, Draper now finds himself in a position to close in on a top-50 ranking with a win over Monfils. 

And as impressive as Draper has been over the past eight months, this is still relatively uncharted territory for the Englishman. Draper has won 70% of his matches over the last 52 weeks (42-18) and 79% of matches on hard courts, but most of those came on the Challenger Tour. At the main level, Draper is 6-3 on hard courts (including qualifiers), and his results include a huge victory (Tsitsipas), but also a loss to World No. 229 Ramkumar Ramanathan. 

In other words, Draper is rising, but the path upwards in tennis is hardly ever straightforward. 

And it’s fair to say that a player like Monfils, a ridiculous defender who can keep himself in rallies, should be able to counter Draper’s terrific motor. Both players will chase every last ball, but Monfils’ experience should prove vital against a player who is playing his first Round of 16 match in a Masters 1000 event. 

Draper has proven he is a dangerous opponent, but this looks like a classic overreaction to his stunning performance against Tsitsipas. Had these two played a couple of days ago, this line would be shaded more towards Monfils, even with it being his first tournament since May. 

Tennis Abstract projects Monfils as a 63% favorite, which translates to -170 on the moneyline. Even if you account for the extenuating circumstances — Monfils’ rust and Draper’s upward trend — the price on La Monf still seems pretty cheap. 

The Bet: Monfils -125 (BetMGM)