The Golden State Warriors have a chance to win their fourth NBA Championship in the last eight seasons when they tip off in Game 6 against the Boston Celtics tonight. If they’re going to win it all, they’ll have to do so in hostile territory at TD Garden in Boston.

In what has been a weird series of lopsided victories, here are three bets worth making for this pivotal Game 6.

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

I’ve been hammering Wiggins prop bets throughout these playoffs, and I’m not going to stop now. Wiggins is coming off a 26-point performance, which is his second-highest playoff point total in his career. He did so without knocking down any of his six three point attempts. Wiggins is averaging 18.4 points in these finals, which is why the line is set where it is. 

However, positive regression is coming. A shooter that averaged 39.3 percent from three this season has a great opportunity to improve on the 25.0% three point percentage that he has displayed in these Finals. Even though Boston was the best team in the NBA at defending the three in the regular season, it’s unlikely that Wiggins will miss all of his attempts for a second straight game.

The lack of production from three actually gives me more confidence in his ability to post another healthy stat line, since he was able to hang 26 points on Boston without the benefit of a deep ball.

Every single game in this series has been won by a scoring margin of at least 10 points, no matter which team has emerged victorious. It feels incredibly odd considering how tight the series is statistically – the Warriors are only averaging 2.2 points per game more than the Celtics. 

Facing elimination, I find it highly unlikely that the Celtics would be blown out at home. Considering what we have seen so far in this series, I trust the Warriors to close out Boston, but I expect it to be tighter than we’ve seen so far. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown averaged 7.3 field goals per game in the paint during the regular season, but have been stifled by Draymond Green. The two are combining for only 3.8 per game in this series.

The Warriors should continue to dominate in transition and shut down the paint. I’ll take them to win in a fairly comfortable fashion, but not by the 10-point spreads we’ve seen in the last two games.

Method of first score is risky, but there’s a little method to the madness. Both teams have been launching threes at an impressive rate in this series, with the Celtics averaging 36.6 3PA/G, and the Warriors at 41.0 3PA/G.

During the NBA regular season, the Mavericks led the league at 41.5 3PA.G. What both teams have averaged in three point attempts in this series would have ranked in the top-5 in the NBA during the regular season. 

The first bucket has come by a deep ball in two of the five games so far, and with both teams aiming to come out of the gates hot in a potential clinching Game 6, I expect the barrage of threes to start early.