LAS VEGAS — The NHL wrapped up with the Tampa Bay Lightning winning the Stanley Cup this past Monday, but we still have an action-packed weekend. Let’s lay out the schedule so we don’t get shut out on any of our bets.
Friday
We have at least one MLB wild-card game with Game 2 of the Marlins-Cubs series after a rainout on Thursday. The Cubs are scheduled to start Cy Young contender Yu Darvish, but the Marlins have been overachieving all season, and — as we saw in the Marlins’ 5-1 win as +145 road dogs in Wednesday’s Game 1 — they’re underpriced in this matchup. I recommend the Marlins at +170 or better.
We also get Game 2 of the NBA Finals. After the Lakers dominated the Heat 116-98 as 4.5-point favorites — which wasn’t as close as the final score indicates, as the Lakers led by 32 points in the third quarter — this spread would have been around the same despite the blowout. However, Miami’s Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic are listed as “doubtful” and this line has been adjusted to Lakers -9.5.
The conventional wisdom is that the series is over if the Heat are without one or both of their stars. However, I’ll make the case that Miami has advanced this far with its depth and team play (and the cupboard isn’t bare with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Andre Iguodala, Duncan Robinson, etc.), so I’ll take the Heat plus as many points as the oddsmakers and betting public will let us have.
Saturday
Autumn Saturdays are made for college football, and it’s great to see the betting menus filling up with more games by the week. Here are some underdogs I’m planning to back this week: East Carolina +1.5 at Georgia State, Missouri +11 at Tennessee, Charlotte +6.5 at Florida Atlantic, Air Force +7 vs. Navy, Auburn +7 at Georgia, Southern Mississippi +1.5 at North Texas.
If you feel the best way to bet college football is to back the best teams, beware that top-10 teams went 2-6 ATS last Saturday with No. 3 Oklahoma, and defending champion and No. 6 LSU losing outright while No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia, No. 8 Texas and No. 10 Texas A&M all failed to cover. Your bookie definitely makes you pay a premium when backing those teams everyone else is betting.
Mixed in with all that football, we get the Preakness Stakes. It is usually held the third Saturday of May as the second leg of the Triple Crown and now we get it on the first Saturday in October, but hey, this is 2020. The race lost some of its luster with Belmont winner Tiz the Law losing to Authentic in September’s Kentucky Derby, so there’s no chance at a Triple Crown.
Mississippi State beat LSU outright last weekend.APHowever, many will be betting on Authentic, the 9-5 morning-line favorite, to move to the head of the class, and they’re encouraged by the fact that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is 5-for-5 with his Derby winners in the Preakness and is going for a record eighth Preakness win overall.
This race also has become known for price horses filling out the exacta, as the average odds of the place horse has been 16-1 over the past seven runnings, so I’ll take No. 8 Max Player (who finished third in the Belmont and fifth in the Derby) to win and place at 15-1. The “other” Baffert horse is tempting as No. 5 Thousand Words is 6-1 on the morning line.
Sunday
Despite the postponement of the Steelers-Titans game, the NFL is still the biggest part of any October weekend, though we’re not thrilled with the distribution of 10 games at 1 p.m. ET and just three at 4:05 and 4:25 p.m.
As mostly a ’dog-or-pass bettor, I like the Browns +4.5 at the Cowboys, Chargers +7 at Buccaneers and, yes, even Washington +13 at home vs. the Ravens in the early games. In the late afternoon, I like the Patriots +7 at the Chiefs.
NFL bettors should have a portfolio that includes teasers (multi-bet wagers where you move the lines six points in your favor) that give you the key numbers of 3 and 7 working for you. Week 4 is full of plays to mix and match such as the Bears teased up to +8.5 vs. the Colts, Buccaneers down to -1 vs. the Chargers, Chiefs down to -1 vs. Patriots, 49ers down to -1 vs. Eagles on Sunday night and Packers down to -1 vs. Falcons if you want to include the Monday nighter.
Game 3 of the NBA Finals goes up against “Sunday Night Football.” My recommendation here depends on what happens Friday night. If the Heat stay within single digits or otherwise showed they could be competitive (or get back Adebayo or Dragic), then I’d be willing to take them plus the points again on Sunday. If Game 2 was a blowout, then it’s probably time to back off.



