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The Celtics hope to stave off elimination when they host the Warriors in Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. Boston is a 3.5-point favorite at home with the total set at 210.5.
Boston’s loss in Game 5 snapped a three-game winning streak for proponents of the zig-zag theory.
Although it was fun while it lasted, I have no desire to deploy that same strategy now that we’ve reached a critical juncture in the series, with just two games remaining. Instead, I’d look to attack this game by targeting a play on the total.
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I took a look at the pace for both teams and compared their regular-season numbers to what we have seen in the Finals. According to NBA.com, Boston ranked 24th in pace during the regular season, with 97.26 possessions per game. Golden State played slightly faster, finishing 15th with 98.74 possessions per game. Yet their combined pace is down to 95.8 possessions per game in the NBA Finals.
The stat that jumps out to me, however, is 3-point shooting. In Game 1, each team hoisted more than 40 3-point shots and shot better than 42 percent on their attempts. Boston even shot 51.2 percent from long range. That’s quite an anomaly which also explains why the total went over 214.5 points.
According to our ActionLabs database, when the total opens at 210 or lower in the NBA postseason, as this one did, the Under is 515-479-17 for 8.84 units. When it’s a Game 6 or Game 7, however, that number improves to 89-66 for 18.14 units.
The play: Celtics-Warriors Game 6, Under 210.5 (BetMGM)
