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Our NBA betting expert breaks down his prediction as a couple of Western Conference contenders square off on national television. The Dallas Mavericks visit the New Orleans Pelicans at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Superstar Luka Doncic and the Mavericks will take on an injury-depleted Pelicans squad led by veteran guard C.J. McCollum. Both teams seem primed to compete in a crowded playoff race in the West, where one game could mean the difference between the play-in tournament and a top-six playoff spot.

Spread: Mavericks -5.5 vs. Pelicans +5.5

Moneyline: Mavericks (-250) vs. Pelicans (+190)

Total: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5

(BetMGM)

The Mavericks offense has been otherworldly so far this season. Its 124.1 offensive rating leads the NBA, albeit only over two games. On Saturday, Dallas dropped 137 points against the Memphis Grizzlies, who posted a top-ten defense last season. 

The Mavericks are, of course, led by Doncic, who came into the season as the betting ahhhhfavorite to win his first NBA MVP award. The Slovenian scorer comes into Tuesday’s matchup averaging 33.5 points, 8.0 assists and 8.0 rebounds over Dallas’ first two contests. 

Although he’s yet to start a game, the Mavericks seem to have found a scoring big man to fit in with Doncic in Christian Wood. The 6-foot-9 center has scored exactly 25 points and shot 50 percent or better in each of the first two games.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans will need to replace the production of a couple of young stars — Zion Williamson, who suffered a hip contusion on Sunday, and Brandon Ingram, who is in concussion protocols. 

New Orleans will also be without its ace defender, Herb Jones, who is suffering from a sore knee. Jones’ absence will make it difficult to contain Doncic and the Mavs’ high-powered offense. The second-year player has quietly been one of the Pelicans’ best in the early going, leading the team in plus-minus at +16.3 through three games. 

That leaves veterans C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas to pick up the scoring. New Orleans is also coming off an overtime game on Sunday while the Mavericks have had two days off since their blowout win over the Grizzlies.

The Mavericks’ offense appeared to come together against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Pelicans aren’t going to have enough firepower to keep up with Dallas, even though they’re playing on their home court. Injuries have ruined what could have been an early-season playoff preview, so look for the Luka-led Mavs to cover tonight.

Mavericks -5.5 (BetMGM)