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Few traditions are better for NBA bettors than the full slate of games on Christmas Day, which serve as a spotlight for the league on a day when most sports cut back on their betting menus. Sure enough, we’ve got five games on Sunday with a quintet of favorites that all look like worthwhile plays.
To be clear, not all five games are worth betting equally, with some presenting as much clearer values than others. With that said, here’s a look at all five games on Christmas Day and how we’d consider betting them at BetMGM:
NBA Christmas Day odds, lines, start times (via BetMGM)
- Knicks vs. 76ers (-2.5, 217.5), 12:10 p.m.
- Mavericks (-8.5, 229.5) vs. Lakers, 12:40 p.m.
- Celtics (-4.5, 224.5) vs. Bucks, 5:10 p.m.
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies (-5.5, 229.5), 8:10 p.m.
- Nuggets (-4.5, 230.5) vs. Suns, 10:40 p.m.
Knicks vs. 76ers prediction and analysis
We’ve written ad nauseam about the Knicks in recent weeks, which is to be expected when they rip off an eight-game win streak that, at the time, was the best in the NBA. That’s since ended, and the 76ers come to town boasting a seven-game heater of their own.
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Philadelphia is finally (mostly) healthy with Joel Embiid and James Harden reigniting one of the best one-two punches in the entire league. That’s helped this group post the NBA’s third-best net rating (+12.0) during their seven-game run with five double-digit wins and two such victories by 20 points.
While New York’s own scoring trio has been tough to stop in recent weeks, the Sixers own the league’s third-best defensive rating (104.3) during their run with Joel Embiid averaging 1.4 blocks and 1.3 steals to complement elite scoring (35.7 PPG) and rebounding (10.3 RPG). Philly is the better and hotter team and should score the outright win here.
Knicks vs. 76ers pick: 76ers -2.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Jalen Brunson NBAE via Getty ImagesMavericks vs. Lakers prediction and analysis
This is one of those games that might be worth staying away from, as the Mavericks have been incredibly unreliable against the spread as favorites (8-17-1 ATS). Yet it’s even harder to justify a play on the Lakers with Anthony Davis (foot) ruled out for Sunday’s affair.
That’s bad news for Los Angeles, which has lost 26 of its last 36 games without the star big man dating back to Jan. 9. The Lakers have been outscored by 7.0 points per 100 possessions in that stretch thanks in large part to an atrocious defensive rating (121) when Davis is on the bench, which would easily rank dead last across a full season.
Luka Doncic should have a field day attacking the lane with Davis sidelined, which should be enough to propel the Mavericks to a blowout win. That said, LeBron James is always a tough out on Christmas Day, so bet accordingly.
Mavericks vs. Lakers pick: Mavericks -8.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Celtics vs. Bucks prediction and analysis
Just when it looked like the Bucks were about to get healthy again, the injury bug struck again. Khris Middleton (knee) has missed the team’s last four games, including two straight losses, while superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is also playing through a nagging knee injury.
Meanwhile, the Celtics are about as healthy as they’ve been all year, though it hasn’t translated to wins as of late. Boston enters Sunday’s tilt having lost five of its last seven games after a 17-2 run (14-5 ATS) dating back to early November, when it looked like the unquestioned best team in the NBA.
Recent results would favor Milwaukee here, health permitting, yet I’d expect the C’s to show up on Sunday in a rematch of last year’s conference finals. We’ve seen how tough that group can be to stop, especially when MVP favorite Jayson Tatum (30.5 PPG) is rolling like he has been this season.
Celtics vs. Bucks pick: Celtics -4.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Jayson Tatum NBAE via Getty ImagesWarriors vs. Grizzlies prediction and analysis
Normally, the Warriors would be an auto-fade on the road and an easy bet at home, even as favorites. That isn’t the case with Stephen Curry (out) sidelined with a serious shoulder injury.
His absence has been a major blow for the defending champions, who have lost seven of their last nine games and three of four without Curry. Golden State has also had to weather multiple missed games from Klay Thompson (knee) and Andrew Wiggins (groin) – the latter of whom is ruled out for Sunday, too – and could be without Draymond Green (foot) in this one.
Meanwhile, Grizzlies two-way star Desmond Bane (toe) is slated to make his long-awaited return on Sunday after missing his team’s last 18 games. Memphis was 9-4 when he went down and has gone 11-7 since then, so I’d expect his return to provide a much-needed jolt against the struggling and short-handed Warriors.
Warriors vs. Grizzlies pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110 BetMGM)
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Nuggets vs. Suns prediction and analysis
Surprise, surprise: we’re backing all five favorites here with the Nuggets earning the nod in the Christmas Day finale. I’m just not sold on the Suns with the uncertain health of star Devin Booker (groin), who has surprisingly missed each of his team’s last three games.
He hasn’t played since dropping 58 points on the Pelicans on Dec. 17, which comes shortly after missing two games with an unrelated hamstring injury. Phoenix has lost four of those five games without its star, and while he seems likely to start on Sunday, that was the case ahead of each of the last three games, too.
Even if he does suit up, I don’t have confidence he’ll be at 100 percent, which will put the Suns at a disadvantage against a Nuggets squad riding a 6-1 run behind two-time MVP Nikola Jokic’s absurd play as of late. I’d bet on him showing out in a prime spot on Sunday night against the defending West champs.
Nuggets vs. Suns pick: Nuggets -4.5 (-110 BetMGM)







