Commercial content 21+.
Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more.
We went 2-1 on our NBA best bets on Wednesday, cashing on the favored Bucks and Suns but falling short in a curious letdown performance by the Cavaliers.
Thursday’s slate is far less packed, with just four games on the docket for bettors. Still, we love the value on a pair of undervalued favorites facing lowly foes that are missing their best player.
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s schedule:
- Check out more of the Best Sportsbook Promo Codes
NBA Thursday odds and picks (via BetMGM)
- Mavericks -4.5 @ Wizards
- Heat -10.5 vs. Hornets
Luka Doncic Getty ImagesWizards vs. Mavericks prediction and analysis
Few teams have gotten off to a more impressive start this year than the Mavericks, who rank seventh in net rating (+4.8) and are one of just five teams to sit in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
That strong two-way play had carried Dallas to four consecutive wins before Wednesday’s loss to the Magic, who held Luka Doncic to just 24 points on 9-of-29 shooting (31%) to end his incredible 30-point scoring streak. I don’t expect a similar performance from the preseason MVP favorite in this one: he shot 31% or worse in just five games last year and followed those up by averaging 34.8 points in his encore performances.
That includes two 40-point outbursts, which could be in play on Thursday against a Wizards team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating (122.8) and has lost five of its last seven games entering this one. With Bradley Beal (COVID-19) sidelined and Doncic primed for a bounce-back effort, Dallas should win this one easily.
Wizards vs. Mavericks pick: Dallas -4.5 (BetMGM)
Heat vs. Hornets prediction and analysis
It may feel extreme to price the Heat as a double-digit favorite after a 4-7 start. It probably is. But I still love this spot for Miami, which is better than its record shows and has excelled in similar spots in the past.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
The Heat’s last two losses both came at the buzzer, which followed a pair of seemingly get-right wins against the Warriors and Kings, respectively. Compare that to the Hornets, who have lost six straight and eight of their last nine by an average of 12.6 points per defeat – with the last four losses coming with LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Gordon Hayward (shoulder) both sidelined.
Miami Heat looks on during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers NBAE via Getty ImagesHeat vs. Hornets pick: Miami -10.5 (BetMGM)
Both will miss Thursday’s contest, too, which is the second leg of a back-to-back for Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Heat have had three days since their last contest, which bodes incredibly well for the home favorites: since 2018, Erik Spoelstra’s group has gone 49-22 against the spread (69%) when coming off at least two day’s rest.
