There’s no time to get nervous from playoff pressure! The Brooklyn Nets will be first on stage in the 2019 NBA postseason when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday afternoon (ESPN, 2:30 p.m.).
Philadelphia is a big favorite to win the series. Sportsbooks have been hesitant to post early numbers because of injury question marks for the Sixers. At full strength, Philadelphia would be about 85-90 percent to advance. Bettors should expect the favorites to be laying 8-10 points at home, then a smaller number in Brooklyn. If a Sixers’ star sits, those prices will move toward the Nets.
With so few market dynamics to study in the series, let’s cover some key analytics data popular with sharps (professional bettors) from the “Hollinger Stats” page at espn.com.
Pace: This should be a relatively fast-paced, entertaining series to watch by playoff standards. Philadelphia ranked No. 8 in the league in pace factor, The Nets No. 10. Both are in the top-half of the league, and should help encourage each other to keep things moving. Quants will be watching Over/Unders to see if the market properly catches this angle.
Offensive efficiency: Big edge to Philadelphia if everyone’s healthy. The Sixers ranked No. 7 in offensive points per possession despite dealing with some injuries. The Nets, who certainly didn’t enjoy perfect health either, was just below league average at 19th.
Defensive efficiency: A wash. The Nets ranked 13th, Philadelphia 14th.
A ranking near league average for the Sixers will likely be a problem in later rounds versus Eastern elites. Respected money isn’t backing Philadelphia on the championship futures board because of the mix of injury issues and mediocre defense.
Rebound rate: This is where Philadelphia is likely to dominate the series if Joel Embiid is ready to impose his will. The Sixers ranked No. 2 in percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Brooklyn was near league average again at 14th. Combine the Nets’ shakier offense with Philadelphia’s stellar rebounding, and it’s a recipe for a one-sided matchup. Those of you just starting to study NBA markets soon will notice that sharps like backing strong rebounding teams at value prices, or with motivational edges in bounce back spots.
Turnover avoidance: Not as important as at the college level, because a certain number of miscues can be tolerated as a side effect of positive aggression. Golden State has had some issues in this area, and it’s not slowing the Warriors down much. Both Philadelphia (23rd) and the Nets (25th) struggle in turnovers per possession, a sloppiness likely hindered by their above average paces.
3-pointers: Both teams shoot 36 percent from behind the arc. The Nets make a couple of more per game because they attempt a lot more. This probably won’t be a factor that impacts the series. But the Nets will be capable of winning outright when topping their regular-season per-game average of 12.8 makes.
