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If the Bills plan to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in 29 years, they’ll likely need Josh Allen to continue playing at a high level.
The Wyoming product was the third quarterback taken in the 2018 draft, and to say he’s exceeded expectations would be an understatement. Allen is an intriguing player, given his growth as a quarterback since entering the league.
Thus, I’m targeting two props for Allen, which I think make sense for the upcoming season.
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Josh Allen prop bets, picks
Over 34.5 Passing TDs (-112 FanDuel)
I’m surprised this number isn’t higher, given what we’ve seen from Allen over the past two seasons. During that span, Allen threw 37 and 36 touchdowns.
Moreover, he threw 37 in 2020—the final year before the league went to a 17-game schedule.
Josh Allen attempts a pass. Getty ImagesBut let’s go back even further to Allen’s rookie year, when he finished with just ten touchdowns. He’d then double that mark with 20 in his sophomore campaign. His growth over four years has been nothing short of remarkable.
And unlike Kyler Murray, you don’t have to worry about inserting a mandatory film study into his contract.
Allen is driven, unlike any quarterback I’ve seen in recent memory. At just 26 years old, he hasn’t even reached his peak. I think he’ll throw at least 35 touchdowns for a third consecutive year.
Over 4320.5 Passing Yards (-112 FanDuel)
If we like the over in Allen’s passing touchdowns, it’s only fitting to back him to go over his yardage prop. Allen finished with 4,544 and 4,407 passing yards in the past two seasons.
However, what’s interesting is that all 11 of Buffalo’s wins were by double-digits. Five wins were by 22 or more points which included two shutout victories.
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I think the Bills will have more competition from the Dolphins and the Jets within the division. Thus, if the games are more competitive, the Bills are less likely to try to take the air out of the ball with their running game in the second half.
If you gave the Bills truth serum, I suspect they’ll say they were the best team in the league last year. This team is on a mission and knows they are favorites to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
As a result, I don’t see any reason to believe Allen or the Bills will take a step back this season.
