More than 3,000 people have signed up for the Circa Survivor and thousands more have signed up for the DraftKings Survivor Contest. Millions around the world will be participating in other NFL survivor pools during the 2021 season.

The rules of a survivor contest are about as cut-and-dried as it gets. Pick one team to win each week. You can only use that team once. Some survivor pools likely have mild rule variances or will force that team to cover the spread as well. While your rules may vary, the majority of NFL survivor pools are going to be pretty boilerplate.

Planning and strategy are the two most important factors when it comes to a survivor contest. You have to win each week to keep playing, but you also want to try to forecast the weeks that you want to take certain teams.

While picking a winner is the most important thing so that you survive, there is added equity in being able to pick a winner that isn’t the most popular pick of the week. If that team loses, it can have a huge impact on the pool. We don’t often see major upsets in the NFL, but if a team like the Lions were to beat the 49ers this week, that would knock out a pretty big percentage of entrants before the season even really gets going.

Stealing a win with a mediocre or even bad team can leave a lot of good opportunities in the weeks ahead but obviously carries additional risk. Weighing the risk-reward is something bettors and handicappers have to do every day. Just because the rules are pretty straightforward for an NFL survivor pool, that does not mean it’s easy to string wins together.

Each season brings uncertainty. Teams have handled the preseason differently in hopes of keeping everybody healthy. There are some new starting quarterbacks who haven’t even gotten reps with their new teams in an actual game. There are some players coming back from injury who haven’t gone full speed in a game. Some teams projected to be good are going to fall short and some teams projected to be bad will exceed expectations.

In a lot of ways, Week 1 is the hardest. Every team will play its worst game and its best game at some point, and if you catch the wrong side of that in Week 1, the Monday (or Tuesday) walk of shame will be painful.

My survivor pick for Week 1 is the Los Angeles Rams over the Chicago Bears. The best time to take a team like the Rams in a survivor contest is right now. Los Angeles is something of a stars-and-scrubs team. This is a team with a solid first unit on the offensive line, but the backups get a little dicey. Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald are studs on defense. The wide receiver group is solid and Matthew Stafford should be as healthy as he is going to be.

Depth could be an issue down the line for the Rams, which may limit the opportunities to take them in future weeks. You could wait and take them over the Lions at home in Week 7, but this looks like a pretty strong spot.

The Bears beat only one team with a winning record last season. It was a Buccaneers team in a compromising spot, having to travel on a short week to play on Thursday night. The Rams allowed only 4.6 yards per play last season, and the offense should be upgraded with Stafford over Jared Goff.