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Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Atlanta Falcons. Be sure to catch up on our Houston Texans preview, published yesterday.

2021 record: 7-10, 3rd in NFC South

This season marks the start of a rebuild for the Falcons, which opted to trade veteran quarterback Matt Ryan in March. They also signed journeyman quarterback Marcus Mariota to a two-year deal in a corresponding move. That leaves Falcons head coach Arthur Smith with a very young roster featuring Mariota, second-year tight end Kyle Pitts and rookie wide receiver Drake London as the predominant skill position players.

The Ryan trade, combined with the departure of Julio Jones last season, leaves Atlanta’s front office with very little wiggle room. As it stands, the Falcons have north of $60 million in dead cap money for the 2022 season. Per spotrac.com, that qualifies as the largest dead cap hit in the NFL.

Week 1: vs. New Orleans Saints
Week 2: at Los Angeles Rams
Week 3: at Seattle Seahawks
Week 4: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 5: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 6: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 7: at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 8: vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 9: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 10: at Carolina Panthers
Week 11: vs. Chicago Bears
Week 12: at Washington Commanders
Week 13: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: at New Orleans Saints
Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 17: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 18: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons win total is understandably low at 4.5 given their overall lack of star-power at skill positions. Interestingly, the over is getting juiced to -120 at Fanduel Sportsbook, while bettors who believe the Falcons win four or fewer games can get +100 on the under.

This team will be lucky to even get to four wins. Remember, this team finished 2-4 in the division last season with a competent quarterback and has a schedule riddled with potential games where Atlanta will be double-digit underdogs. Moreover, there are — at minimum — nine nearly surefire losses on the schedule for this team: twice against the Bucs, at the Saints, Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Ravens, Bengals, and Chargers.

Assuming that theory holds, in the eight remaining games on the schedule — Seahawks, Browns, Panthers (x2), Bears, Commanders, Steelers, Saints — the Falcons would need to go 5-3 to cash the over for their win total.

It certainly helps the Falcons that five of those eight remaining games come at home, but even that might not help them very much. Over the last two seasons, Atlanta is 4-12 straight up at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Plus, five of those games come in the second half of the season, where the team could see a lack of motivation from the Falcons should they get off to a poor start. Further, at least six of those teams (all but the Seahawks) have what many would describe as competent offenses. This should come in handy against an Atlanta defense that ranked 30th in Defensive DVOA last season, per footballoutsiders.com.

For those reasons, lean to the under on the Falcons’ win total. If they get over it, it is likely to be by the slightest of margins, so this is an excellent spot to back the plus-money market.

Under 4.5 Wins (+100)

Combine the fact that the Falcons lack a genuine running threat with the assumption they’ll play behind a lot, and it’s immediately worth looking at Pitts’ receiving yard total.

As a rookie last season, Pitts pulled in 68 catches for a total of 1,026 yards. Pitts dropped only 5.5 percent of passes on his way to a Pro Bowl appearance, per pro-football-reference.com.

Plus, Pitts ranked fifth in all of football in effective yards and 14th in DVOA amongst tight ends, per footballoutsiders.com. Given there are too many unknowns about how the newly-acquired Bryan Edwards and first-year player London will perform in their new roles, Pitts is a player worth trusting.

Add in that Mariota has experience playing with skilled TEs — Darren Waller in Las Vegas, Delanie Walker in Tennessee — and it is very reasonable to expect another strong season for Pitts in 2022.