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Early in the week, the line for Sunday’s Bills-Jets game at MetLife Stadium had reached 13.5 points, and my first impression was that sounded a little high … maybe a lot high. 

When you think of near-two-touchdown spreads in favor of the road team, you think of matchups such as Thursday night’s Eagles-Texans game, when one team is 7-0 and the other is 1-5-1. Or maybe it’s a situation in which the big underdog had just lost its starting quarterback. 

That’s not the case here. Though the Bills are 6-1, the Jets are a winning team at 5-3, including 4-1 with Zach Wilson starting. So how do we get to where we are, which is now Bills -11.5 after the number dipped two points? 

Looking at points per game stats, the Bills’ average game score is 29.0 to 14.0, a 15-point win. The Jets’ average game score is 22.0 to 19.9, a 2.1-point win. The difference between those two average results is 12.9 points. Should the Jets get something for being at home? Probably not, as they are 1-3 at MetLife this season. 

There are better analytical ways to compare teams, but that one rudimentary measure tells me the line at least is in the correct neighborhood. 

The Jets have been good on defense this season, ranking sixth in yardage allowed and 11th in points allowed. Their blueprint for Sunday would be to have Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed shut down Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and to get physical with Josh Allen when he tries to run. The expectation here, though, is even if the defense has a good showing, the Bills are still going to score a minimum of 27 points. 

So the question becomes, can the Jets even get to 16 points? Though there are quite a few things I like about their offense, that would be a tough ask against Buffalo, which ranks No. 1 in points allowed and No. 3 in yards allowed. It would become more doable if the Bills really will be without Von Miller, Matt Milano and Jordan Poyer, a star from each level of their defense. But midweek injury reports often are unreliable. 

Last week showed the Jets’ attack is seriously diminished without Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker, and the fans will be on Wilson on Sunday if the game starts off poorly. Obviously he has to avoid the bad interceptions, but playing it safe won’t put the ball in the end zone against the Bills, either. 

I think there are some more good days and victories ahead for the Jets after their bye, but this one has all the makings of an easy one for Buffalo. 

The pick: Bills -12.5. 

It’s risky to let the injury report dictate a pick. One of the reasons I faded the Seahawks against the Giants last week was it looked as if DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett or both would miss the game. Instead, both found the end zone. The Bolts will be without receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen and TE Donald Parham. It shapes up as another mess for Justin Herbert, but one of these weeks he’s going to go off anyway. 

Kind of a heavy number to lay on the road with the Dolphins, but Tua Tagovailoa was on point in last week’s win at Detroit and now faces a Bears defense that will have to reconstruct itself after the deadline trade of Roquan Smith. 

Though the Bengals have had some big ups and huge downs of late, this seems to be a spot where Joe Burrow can get the offense cranking again — utilizing Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in the absence of Ja’Marr Chase. 

Another game in which I don’t really know what the injury report has in store. The Lions list five offensive starters as questionable including RB D’Andre Swift and C Frank Ragnow. Swift may play a limited role. The Packers list four questionable on offense including Aaron Rodgers and top OLs David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. Who’ll play, sit or be impaired? Who knows? I’ll take the 3.5-point head start, and we’ll find out. 

Like a lot of people, I’m waiting for Josh McDaniels and Derek Carr to figure out how to win another game. Though this is a logical spot, I can see the Jaguars grinding one out in the 83-degree heat behind Travis Etienne (6.2 yards per carry). 

I usually get burned when I give any kind of decent number to the Colts, so I’m going this way, even though Bill Belichick still appears to have some powers against young quarterbacks. The Hoodie will give Sam Ehlinger problems, but he doesn’t exactly have TB12 on his side. 

The Commanders have won three in a row, the last one basically by miracle vs. the Colts. The Vikings, winners of five straight, are healthy offensively, and Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson are capable of putting up a number Tyler Heinicke can’t match. 

Geno Smith isn’t just “doing really well … for Geno Smith,” he’s playing well by any measure with 13 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. With RB Kenneth Walker cranking out 5.4 yards per carry, this won’t all be on Geno. 

Both teams have major injury questions on offense and are healthy on defense, so I’m expecting a very low-scoring game here. Cooper Kupp (ankle) is trending toward playing (if you can believe what you read), and I trust Sean McVay more than Todd Bowles to come up with a winning angle. 

Derrick Henry rolled up 219 yards and two TDs vs. the Texans and may have been helped in a way by Malik Willis, a running threat, playing in place of Ryan Tannehill. The veteran might be back for this. Either way, I expect Henry will find some room to run vs. the Chiefs, who will be without Frank Clark and possibly Willie Gay in the front seven. If the Titans can own the clock, a cover at this number becomes more likely. 

Another big injury “What If?” game. Though the Saints have played competitive ball for over a month without some of their top offensive names, I wonder what the Ravens would look like if TE Mark Andrews and RB Gus Edwards have to sit it out along with WR Rashod Bateman. 

Best bets: Titans, Seahawks, Saints. 
Lock of the week: Titans (Locks 5-3 in 2022). 
Last week: 8-7 overall, 2-1 Best Bets. 
Thursday: Texans.