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There was little doubt that it would happen, but C.J. Stroud has been officially announced as the Week 1 starter for the Houston Texans.

While Davis Mills has played fine for Houston in the post-Deshaun Watson era, Stroud has immeasurably higher upside, and the future should start sooner rather than later. 

So, what can we expect from Stroud and the Texans in the upcoming season? 

When gauging expectations for a team, I like to look toward Vegas.

What do the oddsmakers think about Houston’s Super Bowl chances, AFC South odds, and win total?

Where does Stroud stand in the futures markets for awards like MVP or Offensive Rookie of the Year? 

Here’s where the Texans stand in the major NFL future markets at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

The Texans are tied with Arizona for the longest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl.

They’re projected to finish last in a relatively weak AFC South and aren’t expected to win many games this year. 

However, the markets aren’t as bearish on Stroud. Here’s where he stands in the major NFL future markets at FanDuel:

Stroud has the fifth-shortest odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and is expected to post a 3,000-yard rookie season.

That would be a fine debut for the No. 2 overall pick. 

Are we expecting anything different for Stroud or the Texans this season? 

I think the market is undervaluing Stroud and the Texans. 

Yes, the whole team is new. There’s a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and quarterback. None of those guys have held those positions at the NFL level yet. 

But, new is good, given how bad Houston has been in recent seasons. 

Coach Ryans built defensive powerhouses in San Francisco, and the cupboard isn’t empty in Houston.

EDGE Will Anderson and CB Derek Stingley Jr. give you highly touted prospects at two of the most critical positions. 

The Texans started to put it together on defense over the second half of 2022 – Houston ranked 10th in Football Outsiders’ Defense DVOA metric from Week 9 on.

I don’t think this unit is as bad as many think, and Ryans is a far better coach than Lovie Smith.  

I like what Houston did on offense, specifically on the offensive line.

They already had a great tackle duo in Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. They upgraded at guard by signing Shaq Mason and at center by drafting Juice Scruggs. 

New offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is a Shanahan disciple, so we can expect more aggressive offensive line play that includes wide-zone schemes and more pulling blockers. The Texans also hired a new offensive line coach, importing Chris Strausser from Indianapolis. 

If we see a significant improvement in line play, the running back duo of Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary should be potent and explosive.

A good offensive line and a solid running game will decrease the pressure on Stroud, who will be throwing to an admittedly weak receiving core. 

However, Stroud is an accurate quarterback who should be able to make the right decisions and avoid mistakes. That may be Houston’s best bet at quarterback with how the run game projects. 

The Texans also retained special teams coach Frank Ross, who led the NFL’s second-best special teams unit last season, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. 

Additionally, the Texans are due for positive regression, given they went 3-6 in one-score games last year and had the second-biggest difference in the NFL between Pythagorean expected wins (4.9) and actual wins (3.0). 

Meanwhile, Houston’s 2023 schedule is very soft. The Texans project to have the seventh-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, and they play all 17 games on Sunday, so there are no weird weeks or strange travel spots. 

The Texans project with a solid defense, a much-improved offense, improved quarterback play, and better close-game luck with a more manageable schedule. 

They also have no reason to tank, given they traded their 2024 first-round pick to Arizona in the Anderson draft-day deal.

I think the Texans surprise the NFL next season. While I’m not exactly sure where the most significant improvements will come from, I’m betting Houston will scrape together seven or more victories. 

The play: Houston Texans Over 6.5 Wins (+116, FanDuel)