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The Post’s Dave Blezow breaks down all of the NFL season-long futures betting props ahead of the NFL season opener.

Most Valuable Player

Blezow’s breakdown: If you’ve been reading this space over the years, you already know MVP has become exclusively a quarterbacks’ penthouse, with Patrick Mahomes in 2022 making it 10 years in a row and 15 of the past 16.

At the top of the odds board, if you take Mahomes, you have to worry about Joe Burrow.

If you back Burrow, you have to hope it’s not Josh Allen’s turn.

Right behind them is Jalen Hurts, who nearly became the second player from a losing team to win Super Bowl MVP.

The choice here — and I’m probably going to regret writing this immediately after watching “Hard Knocks” episode 4 — is Aaron Rodgers.

One could argue Rodgers is surrounded by as many offensive weapons as the top four, and the Jets arguably have the best defense.

But if Rodgers takes the Jets to the playoffs and into 12- or 13-win land, he’ll get all the credit and his fifth MVP award. 

All odds via BetMGM as of Aug. 31. 


  Aaron Rodgers could have a big season and win MVP. Getty Images Aaron Rodgers could have a big season and win MVP. Getty Images

MVP winner

Aaron Rodgers (16/1) 

Fine favorite

Joe Burrow (+600) 

Mid-range threat

Trevor Lawrence (16/1) 

The odds: 

Passing yards leader

Blezow’s breakdown: Patrick Mahomes was the leader in this category by more than 500 yards last season, but I find the +250 odds to be prohibitive. Possibly the most interesting stat from 2022 was that Justin Herbert finished second in the NFL with 4,739 passing yards on a Chargers team with a top receiver, Mike Williams, who ranked 27th with 895 yards. If Herbert can see one of his three top wideouts break out and can get another 700-plus receiving yards from RB Austin Ekeler, he can close the gap. Joe Burrow had two 1,000-yard plus receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and should give this a good run. Lower down the board, don’t count out Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers. 

Passing yards winner

Justin Herbert +400 

Favorite at a bargain

Joe Burrow +700 

Live long shot

Tua Tagovailoa 18/1 


  Quarterback Justin Herbert will have Kellen Moore pushing the ball down the field in Los Angeles. Getty Images Quarterback Justin Herbert will have Kellen Moore pushing the ball down the field in Los Angeles. Getty Images

Passing yards leader odds

Rushing yards

Blezow’s breakdown: Starting at the top, there’s nothing to dislike about the favorite, Nick Chubb, except for the +400 odds being a bit low. Last year, I reasoned that seasons of hard miles would take a toll on Derrick Henry, but he still came in second with 1,500-plus yards. No. 1 (Josh Jacobs) and No. 4 (Saquon Barkley) both returned to their teams after failing to secure long-term deals.

They will be free agents again next season and will be motivated. The most intriguing choice is rookie Bijan Robinson, whose film out of Texas is otherworldly. He’s third in the odds on reputation, and with the Falcons possessing a few decent options in the passing game, hopefully Robinson won’t be facing eight-man boxes all season. 

Rushing yards leader

Josh Jacobs 20/1 

Rookie monster

Bijan Robinson +800 

Live long shot

Kenneth Walker III 25/1 


  Bijan Robinson has a loaded offensive line in Atlanta. Getty Images Bijan Robinson has a loaded offensive line in Atlanta. Getty Images

Rushing yards leader odds

Receiving yards

Blezow’s breakdown: Justin Jefferson’s 1,809 yards were the fourth-highest leading total for a receiving leader in the last 27 years, impressive even with the addition of the 17th game. The Vikings have subtracted Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards, and rookie Jordan Addison could take a little more attention off Jefferson than Adam Thielen did. Tyreek Hill was only 99 yards behind, remarkable because his Miami teammate Jaylen Waddle had the seventh-most receiving yards. If Tua Tagovailoa favors Hill a little more this season, he can take it. Ja’Marr Chase’s 12-game pace doesn’t get him to 1,500. A.J. Brown must be considered, but the Eagles have lots of options and a running quarterback. Aaron Rodgers sure likes throwing to Garrett Wilson. 


  Justin Jefferson is an all-world receiver and rightful favorite to lead the league in receiving yards. Getty Images Justin Jefferson is an all-world receiver and rightful favorite to lead the league in receiving yards. Getty Images

Receiving yards leader

Justin Jefferson +550 

Fine favorite

Tyreek Hill +700 

Live long shot

Garrett Wilson 18/1 

Betting on the NFL?

Receiving yards leader odds

Other NFL futures wagers worth making

In 2022, these extra props went 2-2. We hit on the Eagles to win the NFC East and the AFC to win the Super Bowl. The losers were Derek Carr Over 4,499.5 passing yards and Kyle Pitts Over 69.5 receptions. The four-year record is 10-6 heading into these four predictions: 

Jets to win AFC East (+250): This is a sister bet to Aaron Rodgers for MVP. If you believe in one, why not the other? The Jets have better talent than the Patriots, and the Bills may be getting a little stale. The Dolphins could be the bigger problem. 


  CJ Stroud headlines a new-look Texans. Getty Images CJ Stroud headlines a new-look Texans. Getty Images

Kyle Pitts Under 700.5 receiving yards (-110): Pitts was more hurt than bad last season. but I think the Falcons offense has pivoted away from him as the focus. They should have a top running back in Bijan Robinson and have a quarterback who will look to run, too. 

Garrett Wilson Over 8.5 receiving touchdowns (+120): Happy to grab plus money on this prop as Wilson will be Rodgers’ go-to guy inside the 20. 

Texans Over 5.5 wins (-160): Paying some extra juice to take it down by a win as I think 6-11 is reachable for a team that is in a fairly weak division and has a good defense, offensive line, running game and a rookie coach in DeMeco Ryans who should breathe life into the franchise. 

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