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One of the NFL’s best-emerging rivalries takes center stage once again on Thursday when the Chiefs and Chargers face off after a pair of thrilling contests a year ago.

Kansas City enters this one as the clear favorite after last week’s blowout win over the Cardinals, though Los Angeles is dangerous as a live ‘dog after winning in Arrowhead Stadium last season in a nearly identical spot. Can the Bolts pull off the upset once again in what most expect to be a high-scoring affair?

Here’s how we’re betting Thursday night’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

With all of the firepower on the field on Thursday, it’s tempting to blindly bet the over here and just enjoy the show. That’s what most bettors are doing – nearly 75% of the early tickets have been written to the over, per Action Network’s Pro Report, nudging this total up to 54.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

It’s easy to see why. Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert rank in the top three in MVP odds entering Thursday and have been two of the five most prolific passers in the NFL since the start of the 2020 season, spearheading top-five scoring offenses a year ago. Those two QBs led their teams to a combined 116 points in last season’s two meetings, which is surely fueling the early action on the over here, too.

Don’t get caught up in the hysteria. There’s real value on the under, even if it isn’t the sexy pick.

Yes, these two teams erupted in last year’s second matchup, but the first one totaled 54 points and actually cashed the under on a similarly high total (55). In fact, the under is 2-1 in the three matchups that Mahomes and Herbert both took the field – and there are plenty of reasons to expect a similar result here.

Mahomes has historically struggled against the Chargers’ deep and talent-rich secondary, averaging just 261 passing yards per game – the eighth-fewest against any opponent in his six-year career. Los Angeles’ defense on Thursday might be the best version he’s seen yet after the team acquired elite pass-rusher Khalil Mack and star cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle), who is trending toward playing in this one.

Assuming both suit up on Thursday, that’s a huge deal for this defense. Since he was drafted in 2018, Jackson has allowed a paltry 42.0 passer rating as the nearest defender with a whopping 25 interceptions – both of which rank best in the league. Mack has already made his presence felt along this defensive front, registering three sacks with a forced fumble in Sunday’s win over his former team. 

The Chargers played a clean offensive game in that win over the Raiders – they finished with 355 yards, zero turnovers, and just 21 penalty yards, and Herbert (279 yards, 3 TDs) was his usual superstar self. Yet this group only scored 24 points against an unproven Las Vegas defense, and now it has to contend with the loss of leading receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring), who is unlikely to play on short rest against the Chiefs. 

There are myriad schematic reasons to bet the under in this game. Another reason is the total itself. Since the start of the 2020 season, games with a total of 54.5 or higher are 23-15 to the under (60.5%), including 10-6 to the under (62.5%) when either the Chiefs or Chargers are involved. The market has caught up to the historic pace set by the likes of Mahomes and Herbert, and oddsmakers are begging us to take the under. I’ll happily oblige.