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The AFC West hasn’t been nearly as impressive to start the season as many predicted, but after the first month, it still appears the division will go through Kansas City.
The Chiefs are coming off an impressive win over Tampa Bay and are touchdown favorites Monday night over the 1-3 Raiders. While I do think that line is a bit inflated based on Kansas City’s performance last week, it’s not enough for me to bite on the Las Vegas.
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Instead, I’m looking at a player prop: Travis Kelce over 71.5 yards. The Raiders have faced two tight ends with a heartbeat this season in the Chargers’ Gerald Everett and the Cardinals’ Zach Ertz. Everett went for 54 yards, and Ertz put up 75 yards on 11 targets.
Kelce has gone over this number in two of four games, but most importantly, the opportunities have been there. Patrick Mahomes’ main weapon has been targeted 34 times through the first four weeks, and Las Vegas doesn’t really have the defensive personnel to take him out of the game.
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While the Raiders do have a new coaching staff this season, Kelce has traditionally tortured them. He’s gained at least 90 yards receiving in five of the last six meetings and gone over 100 yards four times.
Look for Kelce’s dominance over the Raiders to continue on Monday night as he goes over his receiving yards prop against a suspect Las Vegas pass defense allowing 253.8 yards per game.
Chiefs vs. Raiders pick
Kelce Over 71.5 Yards (-114, BetRivers)
